Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Week 10: Top 25 -- TFG

This week's top 12 sees very little shuffling around, whereas the spots 13-25 undergo some serious shuffling around.

Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Off Pts Def Pts Pace
001-- TCU 0.9583 0.4291 27.4 7.2 80.6
002-- Boise St. 0.9242 0.3901 30.6 10.6 82.0
003-- Alabama 0.9205 0.6041 27.4 9.7 77.9
004-- Ohio St. 0.9166 0.4626 26.5 9.6 80.4
005+3 Iowa 0.8862 0.5779 23.8 9.9 81.0
006-- Virginia Tech 0.8652 0.5453 27.9 12.7 79.4
007-- Oregon 0.8650 0.5537 26.3 12.0 92.7
008+1 Oklahoma 0.8590 0.6040 22.3 10.4 91.9
009-4 Florida 0.8543 0.6513 26.1 12.4 80.0
010-- Utah 0.8442 0.3419 26.9 13.3 81.7
011-- Nebraska 0.8327 0.5212 25.2 12.9 80.5
012-- LSU 0.8260 0.6389 22.9 11.8 79.0
013+2 Auburn 0.7889 0.6064 26.9 15.5 84.0
014-1 Arizona 0.7747 0.5634 20.3 12.1 83.7
015+1 Missouri 0.7672 0.5689 21.9 13.1 86.0
016+5 Stanford 0.7652 0.5440 27.7 16.8 80.2
017-- USC 0.7599 0.5764 23.2 14.3 84.3
018-4 Miami-FL 0.7575 0.6381 20.9 12.9 85.7
019+4 Arkansas 0.7535 0.6247 25.9 16.2 82.9
020-2 Texas 0.7487 0.5463 22.3 14.2 83.3
021-2 South Carolina 0.7484 0.6350 22.1 13.9 80.2
022NA Oregon St. 0.7377 0.6842 24.0 15.5 85.9
023NA Pittsburgh 0.7377 0.5636 23.6 15.3 80.0
024NA Penn State 0.7325 0.6155 18.4 12.1 80.8
025-3 Georgia 0.7317 0.5939 25.8 16.9 77.3

New entries: Oregon State, Pittsburgh, Penn State.

Dropped out: Florida State, Clemson, Wisconsin.

TCU solidifies its hold on the top spot, now a full 340 points ahead of second-place Boise State. By comparison, those same 340 points are the difference in EWP between (16) Stanford and (25) Georgia. The Bronocs, (3) Alabama, and (4) Ohio State are all chasing after a (1) TCU team whose last true challenge will be this weekend against (10) Utah. Boise State has been getting most of the press since they are more traditional underdogs: a scrappy team of castoffs who play for an unorthodox coach on a blue field. TCU, though, has the better EWP and SOS, and an absolutely unreal defensive efficiency of a shade over 7.0. The previous best was last year's Ohio State squad which held opponents to a stingy 8.3 PPH (and finally stopped Oregon's high-flying offense in the Rose Bowl).

While TCU is doing it on defense, Boise State is doing it on offense. The Broncos broke the 30.0 PPH barrier, a figure last year's Texas and Florida squads flirted with briefly before slipping back to the mid-28s. Boise State's defense is not exactly slacking, either, allowing a Division I-A 6th-best 10.6 PPH. They'll need to clamp down on D even more if they want to catch TCU before the end of the season, though.

TFG is still reserving judgment on the (7) Oregon Ducks thanks to a defense that hasn't made the leap from good to great. On the other hand, the defense may not be giving it their all, since they know their offense can step in and bail them out. This year's version of the Ducks is good for an extra 4.0 PPH over last year's model, and that will probably be enough to push them through to the national championship game. I'm still skeptical that Oregon can stand up to a truly elite team like Alabama or Ohio State, but all signs point to the Ducks having the opportunity to prove just that.

After weeks of holding a good ranking despite a deteriorating EWP, (9) Florida is finally starting to plummet out of the top 10. Their defense has been keeping them ranked high here, but it turns out Tim Tebow was worth about 3.0 PPH on offense, and that loss has been hurting the Gators. And finally, Penn State finally makes a reappearance in the top 25 after locating some offense in Ann Arbor. My advice: find it sooner rather than later before you ring up any more losses.