Thursday, October 6, 2011

Week 6: Undefeated ... but for how long?


Odds as of games through 2011-10-02

Full discussion and details after the jump.




Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.959 1 0.625 16 34.1 1 9.7 1 155.1 118

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03 100 Kent St. 7 at   3 Alabama 48 98.6%
2011/09/10   2 Alabama 27 at  33 Penn State 11 79.5%
2011/09/17 106 North Texas 0 at   1 Alabama 41 99.1%
2011/09/24  12 Arkansas 14 at   1 Alabama 38 86.1%
2011/10/01   1 Alabama 38 at   3 Florida 10 58.5%
2011/10/08  86 Vanderbilt 17 at   1 Alabama 42 98.5%
2011/10/15   1 Alabama 42 at  73 Mississippi 23 95.8%
2011/10/22  33 Tennessee 26 at   1 Alabama 43 94.2%
2011/11/05   3 LSU 30 at   1 Alabama 36 73.6%
2011/11/12   1 Alabama 39 at  46 Mississippi St. 22 93.6%
2011/11/26   1 Alabama 42 at  26 Auburn 29 89.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.8
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs LSU Tigers, 73.6%
Notes: Shockingly, Alabama seems to be through the bulk of their difficult schedule. Hosting LSU presents a bit of a challenge, but the Crimson Tide are still 3-to-1 favorites to win, and better than a coin toss to head to an SEC championship game undefeated.


Boise State Broncos
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.912 2 0.496 61 29.3 5 11.5 3 164.0 76

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  23 Georgia 21 vs   2 Boise St. 35 84.9%
2011/09/16   2 Boise St. 40 at  65 Toledo 15 89.9%
2011/09/24  52 Tulsa 21 at   2 Boise St. 41 93.1%
2011/10/01  45 Nevada 10 at   2 Boise St. 30 91.3%
2011/10/07   2 Boise St. 43 at  72 Fresno St. 28 90.9%
2011/10/15   2 Boise St. 45 at 111 Colorado St. 21 97.7%
2011/10/22  50 Air Force 23 at   2 Boise St. 40 93.3%
2011/11/05   2 Boise St. 46 at 105 UNLV 22 97.6%
2011/11/12  10 TCU 31 at   2 Boise St. 37 73.4%
2011/11/19   2 Boise St. 40 at  65 SDSU 24 92.4%
2011/11/26 101 Wyoming 20 at   2 Boise St. 43 97.4%
2011/12/03 118 New Mexico 17 at   2 Boise St. 47 99.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.9
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 73.4%
Notes: Another year, another apparent cakewalk for Boise, another showdown with TCU on the horizon. TCU has fallen off this year, and the computer likes the fact that the Horned Frogs are visiting the Smurf Turf. The Broncos are also slightly better than a coin toss to finish the season out undefeated.


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.901 5 0.495 62 30.9 3 12.8 8 159.8 103

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03 115 SJSU 3 at   6 Stanford 57 98.8%
2011/09/10   6 Stanford 44 at  90 Duke 14 91.4%
2011/09/17   5 Stanford 37 at  40 Arizona 10 76.6%
2011/10/01  76 UCLA 19 at   4 Stanford 45 95.3%
2011/10/08  76 Colorado 24 at   5 Stanford 43 95.2%
2011/10/15   5 Stanford 41 at  81 Washington St. 25 91.6%
2011/10/22  45 Washington 26 at   5 Stanford 42 91.5%
2011/10/29   5 Stanford 37 at  36 USC 30 74.3%
2011/11/05   5 Stanford 39 at  64 Oregon St. 24 89.8%
2011/11/12   8 Oregon 34 at   5 Stanford 39 64.0%
2011/11/19  48 California 26 at   5 Stanford 39 87.9%
2011/11/26  14 Notre Dame 28 at   5 Stanford 36 71.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.7
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 64.0%
Notes: With eight games to go there are more chances for the Cardinal to slip up, and Oregon isn't going to go easily. Stanford currently has home field advantage on their side for most of the rest of the season, with only trips to Washington State (cakewalk), Oregon State (easy), and USC (less easy) calling them away from Palo Alto between now and December.


Oklahoma Sooners
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.902 4 0.601 21 26.1 16 10.7 2 180.6 5

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  47 Tulsa 14 at   7 Oklahoma 47 88.3%
2011/09/17   6 Oklahoma 23 at  12 Florida St. 13 51.7%
2011/09/24  26 Missouri 28 at   4 Oklahoma 38 82.5%
2011/10/01 103 Ball St. 6 at   6 Oklahoma 62 97.6%
2011/10/08  21 Texas 28 vs   4 Oklahoma 34 75.0%
2011/10/15   4 Oklahoma 42 at  90 Kansas 26 93.5%
2011/10/22  43 Texas Tech 27 at   4 Oklahoma 41 91.2%
2011/10/29   4 Oklahoma 37 at  35 Kansas St. 33 74.1%
2011/11/05  15 Texas A&M 29 at   4 Oklahoma 36 75.1%
2011/11/19   4 Oklahoma 41 at  49 Baylor 29 88.2%
2011/11/26  68 Iowa St. 24 at   4 Oklahoma 39 92.3%
2011/12/03   4 Oklahoma 37 at  18 Oklahoma St. 32 72.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.8
Most difficult game left: December 3, at Oklahoma State Cowboys, 72.4%
Notes: With Nebraska having bolted for the Big 10, that leaves a somewhat flaky Oklahoma State team and mediocre Aggie, Wildcat, and Longhorn squads to stand in the way of an undefeated season. It's possible the Sooners will trip up, but they're strong favorites in all remaining games.


Wisconsin Badgers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.882 6 0.506 57 31.4 2 14.0 15 158.8 107

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/01 107 UNLV 17 at  14 Wisconsin 51 96.5%
2011/09/10  40 Oregon St. 0 at  15 Wisconsin 35 79.4%
2011/09/17  13 Wisconsin 49 vs  47 Northern Ill. 7 76.3%
2011/10/01  17 Nebraska 17 at   7 Wisconsin 48 73.6%
2011/10/15  96 Indiana 23 at   6 Wisconsin 47 96.9%
2011/10/22   6 Wisconsin 34 at  20 Michigan St. 30 59.6%
2011/10/29   6 Wisconsin 30 at   9 Ohio St. 32 44.9%
2011/11/05  87 Purdue 22 at   6 Wisconsin 42 94.9%
2011/11/12   6 Wisconsin 44 at  97 Minnesota 24 95.0%
2011/11/19   6 Wisconsin 39 at  38 Illinois 29 81.1%
2011/11/26  30 Penn State 26 at   6 Wisconsin 35 74.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-7.1
Most difficult game left: October 29, at Ohio State Buckeyes, 44.9%
Notes: I suspect this will only tip in the Badgers' favor as the Buckeyes continue their long spiral downwards. Michigan State may present a challenge to Bucky, but this Wisconsin squad will likely be the favorite in all remaining games.


Long Shots

Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.788 13 0.638 12 22.4 35 13.3 11 166.2 62

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  68 Troy 19 at  34 Clemson 43 80.6%
2011/09/17  14 Auburn 24 at  26 Clemson 38 47.7%
2011/09/24  13 Florida St. 30 at  28 Clemson 35 49.2%
2011/10/01  23 Clemson 23 at  11 Virginia Tech 3 26.8%
2011/10/08  88 Boston College 20 at  13 Clemson 33 92.0%
2011/10/15  13 Clemson 33 at  57 Maryland 28 70.3%
2011/10/22  40 North Carolina 26 at  13 Clemson 34 79.0%
2011/10/29  13 Clemson 34 at  34 Georgia Tech 33 52.9%
2011/11/12  82 Wake Forest 25 at  13 Clemson 38 88.6%
2011/11/19  13 Clemson 35 at  54 North Carolina St. 28 76.9%
2011/11/26  13 Clemson 32 at  27 South Carolina 31 57.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-9.5
Most difficult game left: October 29, at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 52.9%
Notes: Ahh, the ACC. I'm not going to pretend to know what's going to happen here. Just sit back and enjoy the ride.


LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.909 3 0.671 4 29.8 4 11.9 5 160.8 100

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03   5 Oregon 27 vs   9 LSU 40 45.4%
2011/09/15   7 LSU 19 at  35 Mississippi St. 6 69.4%
2011/09/24   5 LSU 47 at  21 West Virginia 21 64.4%
2011/10/01  62 Kentucky 7 at   5 LSU 35 93.0%
2011/10/08   7 Florida 30 at   3 LSU 35 66.6%
2011/10/15   3 LSU 37 at  33 Tennessee 31 74.8%
2011/10/22  26 Auburn 30 at   3 LSU 41 85.0%
2011/11/05   3 LSU 30 at   1 Alabama 36 26.4%
2011/11/12 110 Western Kentucky 20 at   3 LSU 47 98.5%
2011/11/19   3 LSU 41 at  73 Mississippi 24 93.4%
2011/11/25  17 Arkansas 33 at   3 LSU 38 73.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-13.2
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 26.4%
Notes: Could LSU be this year's Auburn? A team that beats 1-in-100 odds or even 1-in-27 odds to go all the way? Or is Les Miles actually Billy Pilgrim, and he already knows how this turns out?


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.452 66 0.339 111 21.5 46 23.2 89 180.6 6

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  78 UCLA 34 at  63 Houston 38 74.5%
2011/09/10  65 Houston 48 at 109 North Texas 23 73.3%
2011/09/17  63 Houston 35 at  77 LA Tech 34 51.2%
2011/09/29  63 Houston 49 at  96 UTEP 42 62.1%
2011/10/08  80 East Carolina 36 at  66 Houston 41 67.0%
2011/10/22  93 Marshall 30 at  66 Houston 38 78.0%
2011/10/27 100 Rice 33 at  66 Houston 44 82.1%
2011/11/05  66 Houston 41 at 112 UAB 32 80.2%
2011/11/10  66 Houston 42 at 107 Tulane 33 78.6%
2011/11/19  62 SMU 35 at  66 Houston 34 46.5%
2011/11/25  66 Houston 37 at  52 Tulsa 39 42.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-18.9
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 42.1%
Notes: Wrong conference. Next!


Absolute Phonies

Michigan Wolverines
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.790 12 0.476 70 27.7 11 16.3 30 160.9 99

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  67 Western Michigan 10 at  62 Michigan 34 67.8%
2011/09/10  28 Notre Dame 31 at  39 Michigan 35 54.9%
2011/09/17 116 Eastern Michigan 3 at  37 Michigan 31 96.3%
2011/09/24  59 SDSU 7 at  31 Michigan 28 75.6%
2011/10/01  79 Minnesota 0 at  29 Michigan 58 86.3%
2011/10/08  12 Michigan 38 at  69 Northwestern 29 77.1%
2011/10/15  12 Michigan 31 at  20 Michigan St. 33 45.0%
2011/10/29  87 Purdue 24 at  12 Michigan 40 92.6%
2011/11/05  12 Michigan 35 at  25 Iowa 34 52.8%
2011/11/12  12 Michigan 36 at  38 Illinois 31 64.3%
2011/11/19  23 Nebraska 32 at  12 Michigan 35 55.2%
2011/11/26   9 Ohio St. 32 at  12 Michigan 30 39.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-41.9
Most difficult game left: November 26, vs Ohio State Buckeyes, 39.6%
Notes: I'm still skeptical that Michigan is for real. Let's see them get past Michigan State and then we'll talk. The hearing on this appeal is scheduled for October 20th.


Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.779 18 0.553 38 25.5 18 15.4 23 182.0 2

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03 110 LA-Lafayette 34 at  16 Oklahoma St. 61 96.7%
2011/09/08  34 Arizona 14 at  22 Oklahoma St. 37 69.2%
2011/09/18  15 Oklahoma St. 59 at  55 Tulsa 33 66.1%
2011/09/24  17 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 Texas A&M 29 38.3%
2011/10/08  90 Kansas 28 at  18 Oklahoma St. 45 91.9%
2011/10/15  18 Oklahoma St. 33 at  21 Texas 34 44.2%
2011/10/22  18 Oklahoma St. 33 at  24 Missouri 34 42.2%
2011/10/29  49 Baylor 31 at  18 Oklahoma St. 42 81.9%
2011/11/05  35 Kansas St. 35 at  18 Oklahoma St. 39 67.5%
2011/11/12  18 Oklahoma St. 38 at  43 Texas Tech 33 67.7%
2011/11/18  18 Oklahoma St. 39 at  68 Iowa St. 28 82.1%
2011/12/03   4 Oklahoma 37 at  18 Oklahoma St. 32 27.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-68.8
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 27.6%
Notes: This Cowboy squad is only favored in five of their remaining 8 games. Beat Texas in Austin and we'll talk. Hearing for this one is also scheduled for the 20th.


Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.673 34 0.492 65 28.0 8 20.9 76 156.8 117

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/10  56 Georgia Tech 49 at  97 Middle Tenn. 21 66.4%
2011/09/17  86 Kansas 24 at  43 Georgia Tech 66 81.0%
2011/09/24  41 North Carolina 28 at  37 Georgia Tech 35 64.9%
2011/10/01  38 Georgia Tech 45 at  58 North Carolina St. 35 57.3%
2011/10/08  57 Maryland 31 at  34 Georgia Tech 39 73.4%
2011/10/15  34 Georgia Tech 38 at  84 Virginia 30 73.8%
2011/10/22  34 Georgia Tech 33 at  29 Miami-FL 36 33.1%
2011/10/29  13 Clemson 34 at  34 Georgia Tech 33 47.1%
2011/11/10  11 Virginia Tech 33 at  34 Georgia Tech 32 37.6%
2011/11/19  34 Georgia Tech 41 at  83 Duke 31 78.9%
2011/11/26  19 Georgia 38 at  34 Georgia Tech 35 39.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-101.8
Most difficult game left: October 22, at Miami Hurricanes, 33.1%
Notes: The ACC, with 100-to-1 odds to boot. No thank you.


Texas Longhorns
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.754 21 0.486 66 22.7 30 14.5 16 163.5 81

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  98 Rice 9 at  33 Texas 34 91.8%
2011/09/10  38 BYU 16 at  25 Texas 17 71.3%
2011/09/17  24 Texas 49 at  76 UCLA 20 72.7%
2011/10/01  22 Texas 37 at  60 Iowa St. 14 67.0%
2011/10/08  21 Texas 28 vs   4 Oklahoma 34 25.0%
2011/10/15  18 Oklahoma St. 33 at  21 Texas 34 55.8%
2011/10/29  90 Kansas 25 at  21 Texas 41 91.6%
2011/11/05  43 Texas Tech 29 at  21 Texas 35 72.0%
2011/11/12  21 Texas 29 at  24 Missouri 31 46.1%
2011/11/19  35 Kansas St. 33 at  21 Texas 34 60.3%
2011/11/24  21 Texas 30 at  15 Texas A&M 32 45.7%
2011/12/03  21 Texas 36 at  49 Baylor 30 71.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-120.2
Most difficult game left: October 8, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 25.0%
Notes: Everyone who expects them to be here next week, step forwards. Not so fast, Austin residents.


What are YOU doing here??

Illinois Fighting Illini
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.637 38 0.518 52 22.2 37 17.7 42 165.7 67

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  88 Arkansas St. 15 at  40 Illinois 33 85.6%
2011/09/17  33 Arizona St. 14 at  34 Illinois 17 59.8%
2011/09/24  72 Western Michigan 20 at  34 Illinois 23 79.8%
2011/10/01  75 Northwestern 35 at  35 Illinois 38 81.4%
2011/10/08  38 Illinois 37 at  96 Indiana 29 77.9%
2011/10/15   9 Ohio St. 31 at  38 Illinois 28 30.9%
2011/10/22  38 Illinois 33 at  87 Purdue 28 69.7%
2011/10/29  38 Illinois 27 at  30 Penn State 31 30.0%
2011/11/12  12 Michigan 36 at  38 Illinois 31 35.7%
2011/11/19   6 Wisconsin 39 at  38 Illinois 29 18.9%
2011/11/26  38 Illinois 38 at  97 Minnesota 27 84.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-350.1
Most difficult game left: November 19, vs Wisconsin Badgers, 18.9%
Notes: Favored in three of their remaining seven games. The betting pool should be on how long this lasts, not whether they'll make it.


Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.668 35 0.514 54 26.6 14 20.1 67 157.5 114

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/17 105 Kent St. 0 at  57 Kansas St. 37 89.0%
2011/09/24  38 Kansas St. 28 at  16 Miami-FL 24 25.3%
2011/10/01  46 Baylor 35 at  36 Kansas St. 36 68.7%
2011/10/08  24 Missouri 34 at  35 Kansas St. 33 49.3%
2011/10/15  35 Kansas St. 35 at  43 Texas Tech 36 49.5%
2011/10/22  35 Kansas St. 40 at  90 Kansas 32 73.7%
2011/10/29   4 Oklahoma 37 at  35 Kansas St. 33 25.9%
2011/11/05  35 Kansas St. 35 at  18 Oklahoma St. 39 32.5%
2011/11/12  15 Texas A&M 35 at  35 Kansas St. 34 39.7%
2011/11/19  35 Kansas St. 33 at  21 Texas 34 39.7%
2011/12/03  68 Iowa St. 30 at  35 Kansas St. 37 72.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-579.7
Most difficult game left: October 29, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 25.9%
Notes: Win two coin tosses and then beat Oklahoma. Who else thinks they're pulling that one off? Me neither.


Texas Tech Red Raiders
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.586 43 0.364 106 20.9 48 18.2 50 180.7 4

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/17  51 Texas Tech 59 at 118 New Mexico 13 91.2%
2011/09/24  50 Nevada 34 at  43 Texas Tech 35 63.7%
2011/10/01  40 Texas Tech 45 at  91 Kansas 34 71.6%
2011/10/08  15 Texas A&M 35 at  43 Texas Tech 32 36.1%
2011/10/15  35 Kansas St. 35 at  43 Texas Tech 36 50.5%
2011/10/22  43 Texas Tech 27 at   4 Oklahoma 41 8.8%
2011/10/29  68 Iowa St. 29 at  43 Texas Tech 36 74.7%
2011/11/05  43 Texas Tech 29 at  21 Texas 35 28.0%
2011/11/12  18 Oklahoma St. 38 at  43 Texas Tech 33 32.3%
2011/11/19  43 Texas Tech 30 at  24 Missouri 35 32.0%
2011/11/26  43 Texas Tech 36 vs  49 Baylor 35 53.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5409.5
Most difficult game left: October 22, at Oklahoma Sooners, 8.8%
Notes: It's a good thing the Red Raiders got rid of Mike Leach. Otherwise they might be an embarrassment.


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