Week 8: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG

Odds as of games through 2011-10-16

Legitimate Title Contenders

Boise State Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.930	3	0.463	76	31.4	4	11.2	3	164.0	76

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	23	Georgia	21	vs	2	Boise St.	35	84.9%	159
2011/09/16	2	Boise St.	40	at	65	Toledo	15	89.8%	181
2011/09/24	52	Tulsa	21	at	2	Boise St.	41	93.1%	162
2011/10/01	45	Nevada	10	at	2	Boise St.	30	91.2%	159
2011/10/07	2	Boise St.	57	at	72	Fresno St.	7	90.9%	161
2011/10/15	2	Boise St.	63	at	109	Colorado St.	13	98.2%	161
2011/10/22	62	Air Force	24	at	3	Boise St.	45	95.9%	166
2011/11/05	3	Boise St.	49	at	114	UNLV	20	98.8%	163
2011/11/12	9	TCU	30	at	3	Boise St.	38	78.3%	164
2011/11/19	3	Boise St.	41	at	65	SDSU	24	93.9%	167
2011/11/26	106	Wyoming	20	at	3	Boise St.	46	98.4%	165
2011/12/03	118	New Mexico	17	at	3	Boise St.	50	99.5%	166

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.5
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 78.3%
Notes: Really this one's just "on hold" until November 12th. It'd take an epic upset to change that.

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.967	1	0.567	34	35.2	1	9.1	1	153.7	120

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	100	Kent St.	7	at	3	Alabama	48	98.6%	172
2011/09/10	2	Alabama	27	at	33	Penn State	11	79.5%	164
2011/09/17	106	North Texas	0	at	1	Alabama	41	99.1%	153
2011/09/24	12	Arkansas	14	at	1	Alabama	38	86.1%	145
2011/10/01	1	Alabama	38	at	3	Florida	10	58.5%	146
2011/10/08	86	Vanderbilt	0	at	1	Alabama	34	98.5%	140
2011/10/15	1	Alabama	52	at	72	Mississippi	7	96.9%	141
2011/10/22	42	Tennessee	23	at	1	Alabama	44	96.9%	157
2011/11/05	2	LSU	32	at	1	Alabama	37	71.5%	155
2011/11/12	1	Alabama	39	at	41	Mississippi St.	21	94.1%	161
2011/11/26	1	Alabama	41	at	25	Auburn	28	91.2%	160

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.7
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs LSU Tigers, 71.5%
Notes: Yes, you're reading that correctly. Alabama is >90% likely to win three of its last four games, including a road game against Auburn. I'm not sure if that's the jaw-dropping part, or that the Crimson Tide are better than 2-to-1 favorites against (2) LSU.

Second-Tier Hopefuls

Oklahoma Sooners
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.903	5	0.573	32	26.5	8	10.8	2	179.5	7

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	47	Tulsa	14	at	7	Oklahoma	47	88.3%	191
2011/09/17	6	Oklahoma	23	at	12	Florida St.	13	51.7%	150
2011/09/24	26	Missouri	28	at	4	Oklahoma	38	82.5%	194
2011/10/01	102	Ball St.	6	at	6	Oklahoma	62	97.6%	182
2011/10/08	22	Texas	17	vs	4	Oklahoma	55	75.1%	179
2011/10/15	5	Oklahoma	47	at	90	Kansas	17	94.1%	183
2011/10/22	43	Texas Tech	27	at	5	Oklahoma	42	90.9%	181
2011/10/29	5	Oklahoma	36	at	33	Kansas St.	32	73.7%	169
2011/11/05	13	Texas A&M	30	at	5	Oklahoma	36	74.2%	178
2011/11/19	5	Oklahoma	42	at	56	Baylor	30	88.7%	177
2011/11/26	84	Iowa St.	23	at	5	Oklahoma	42	94.7%	178
2011/12/03	5	Oklahoma	37	at	15	Oklahoma St.	33	71.8%	180

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.3
Most difficult game left: December 3, at Oklahoma State Cowboys, 71.8%
Notes: Another weak opponent before the Sooners get into a moderately difficult stretch against Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State.

Stanford Cardinal
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.908	4	0.473	71	30.3	5	12.1	6	160.3	102

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	115	SJSU	3	at	6	Stanford	57	98.8%	162
2011/09/10	6	Stanford	44	at	90	Duke	14	91.4%	155
2011/09/17	5	Stanford	37	at	40	Arizona	10	76.6%	155
2011/10/01	76	UCLA	19	at	4	Stanford	45	95.3%	152
2011/10/08	76	Colorado	7	at	5	Stanford	48	95.2%	155
2011/10/15	4	Stanford	44	at	82	Washington St.	14	93.1%	157
2011/10/22	44	Washington	27	at	4	Stanford	42	91.4%	161
2011/10/29	4	Stanford	36	at	30	USC	29	73.5%	163
2011/11/05	4	Stanford	39	at	61	Oregon St.	25	89.8%	164
2011/11/12	7	Oregon	34	at	4	Stanford	37	61.0%	173
2011/11/19	63	California	23	at	4	Stanford	39	91.6%	164
2011/11/26	17	Notre Dame	29	at	4	Stanford	36	73.0%	165

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.1
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 61.0%
Notes: Stanford just needs to make sure they don't get caught looking past a Washington or an Oregon State on their way to games against actual opponents like USC and Oregon.

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.934	2	0.682	2	33.3	2	11.6	4	157.9	112

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	5	Oregon	27	vs	9	LSU	40	45.4%	184
2011/09/15	7	LSU	19	at	35	Mississippi St.	6	69.4%	150
2011/09/24	5	LSU	47	at	21	West Virginia	21	64.4%	188
2011/10/01	62	Kentucky	7	at	5	LSU	35	93.0%	162
2011/10/08	7	Florida	11	at	3	LSU	41	66.6%	141
2011/10/15	3	LSU	38	at	32	Tennessee	7	81.4%	143
2011/10/22	25	Auburn	29	at	2	LSU	42	88.6%	162
2011/11/05	2	LSU	32	at	1	Alabama	37	28.5%	155
2011/11/12	104	Western Kentucky	20	at	2	LSU	47	98.4%	159
2011/11/19	2	LSU	45	at	74	Mississippi	24	95.8%	160
2011/11/25	11	Arkansas	32	at	2	LSU	40	77.6%	164

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.4
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 28.5%
Notes: The (2) Tigers keep getting better. The downside is they're still nowhere near as good as Alabama.

Wisconsin Badgers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.892	6	0.476	70	32.1	3	13.8	11	158.2	111

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/01	107	UNLV	17	at	14	Wisconsin	51	96.5%	146
2011/09/10	40	Oregon St.	0	at	15	Wisconsin	35	79.4%	153
2011/09/17	13	Wisconsin	49	vs	47	Northern Ill.	7	76.3%	160
2011/10/01	17	Nebraska	17	at	7	Wisconsin	48	73.9%	159
2011/10/15	95	Indiana	7	at	6	Wisconsin	59	96.7%	162
2011/10/22	6	Wisconsin	34	at	14	Michigan St.	30	57.7%	159
2011/10/29	6	Wisconsin	33	at	8	Ohio St.	30	50.8%	158
2011/11/05	72	Purdue	24	at	6	Wisconsin	42	93.5%	165
2011/11/12	6	Wisconsin	45	at	100	Minnesota	24	95.9%	159
2011/11/19	6	Wisconsin	39	at	40	Illinois	27	83.2%	161
2011/11/26	26	Penn State	25	at	6	Wisconsin	35	75.4%	162

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-6.1
Most difficult game left: October 29, at Ohio State Buckeyes, 50.8%
Notes: The next two games are going to be a true test of the Badgers. Win both, and their odds of going undefeated spike to 1-in-1.8; lose either, and they're out of the title picture.

Long Shots

Houston Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.558	53	0.360	108	22.8	32	20.8	73	180.3	4

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	78	UCLA	34	at	63	Houston	38	74.5%	170
2011/09/10	65	Houston	48	at	109	North Texas	23	73.3%	186
2011/09/17	63	Houston	35	at	77	LA Tech	34	51.2%	205
2011/09/29	63	Houston	49	at	96	UTEP	42	62.1%	178
2011/10/08	80	East Carolina	3	at	66	Houston	56	67.1%	182
2011/10/22	94	Marshall	28	at	53	Houston	38	84.8%	172
2011/10/27	96	Rice	30	at	53	Houston	44	86.2%	175
2011/11/05	53	Houston	42	at	113	UAB	29	87.7%	173
2011/11/10	53	Houston	44	at	109	Tulane	31	85.0%	170
2011/11/19	46	SMU	36	at	53	Houston	34	48.0%	171
2011/11/25	53	Houston	36	at	51	Tulsa	38	49.7%	178

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-7.7
Most difficult game left: November 19, vs SMU Mustangs, 48.0%
Notes: Huh.

Clemson Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.744	23	0.596	23	23.3	26	15.2	21	168.2	48

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	68	Troy	19	at	34	Clemson	43	80.6%	180
2011/09/17	14	Auburn	24	at	26	Clemson	38	47.7%	181
2011/09/24	13	Florida St.	30	at	28	Clemson	35	49.2%	166
2011/10/01	23	Clemson	23	at	11	Virginia Tech	3	26.8%	162
2011/10/08	88	Boston College	14	at	13	Clemson	36	92.0%	159
2011/10/15	19	Clemson	56	at	55	Maryland	45	67.3%	194
2011/10/22	39	North Carolina	27	at	23	Clemson	34	73.6%	164
2011/10/29	23	Clemson	34	at	36	Georgia Tech	33	50.8%	161
2011/11/12	71	Wake Forest	27	at	23	Clemson	38	83.4%	169
2011/11/19	23	Clemson	36	at	57	North Carolina St.	30	72.5%	168
2011/11/26	23	Clemson	32	at	19	South Carolina	33	47.1%	164

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-9.4
Most difficult game left: November 26, at South Carolina Gamecocks, 47.1%
Notes: I still just don't know.

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.785	15	0.550	41	25.9	14	15.4	22	181.9	3

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	110	LA-Lafayette	34	at	16	Oklahoma St.	61	96.7%	196
2011/09/08	34	Arizona	14	at	22	Oklahoma St.	37	69.2%	185
2011/09/18	15	Oklahoma St.	59	at	55	Tulsa	33	66.1%	202
2011/09/24	17	Oklahoma St.	30	at	14	Texas A&M	29	38.3%	199
2011/10/08	89	Kansas	28	at	18	Oklahoma St.	70	91.8%	186
2011/10/15	15	Oklahoma St.	38	at	29	Texas	26	51.5%	184
2011/10/22	15	Oklahoma St.	33	at	22	Missouri	34	42.6%	176
2011/10/29	56	Baylor	32	at	15	Oklahoma St.	44	83.2%	178
2011/11/05	33	Kansas St.	34	at	15	Oklahoma St.	39	67.8%	170
2011/11/12	15	Oklahoma St.	39	at	43	Texas Tech	34	67.5%	183
2011/11/18	15	Oklahoma St.	41	at	84	Iowa St.	27	87.8%	179
2011/12/03	5	Oklahoma	37	at	15	Oklahoma St.	33	28.2%	180

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-24.9
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 28.2%
Notes: Good teams beat Texas by 12. Great teams beat them by 38.

Absolute Phonies

Kansas State Wildcats
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.674	33	0.543	45	25.7	15	19.3	59	159.1	107

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/17	104	Kent St.	0	at	57	Kansas St.	37	89.0%	153
2011/09/24	38	Kansas St.	28	at	15	Miami-FL	24	25.3%	144
2011/10/01	46	Baylor	35	at	36	Kansas St.	36	68.7%	168
2011/10/08	23	Missouri	17	at	35	Kansas St.	24	49.3%	161
2011/10/15	30	Kansas St.	41	at	43	Texas Tech	34	48.6%	193
2011/10/22	33	Kansas St.	40	at	87	Kansas	32	73.3%	163
2011/10/29	5	Oklahoma	36	at	33	Kansas St.	32	26.3%	169
2011/11/05	33	Kansas St.	34	at	15	Oklahoma St.	39	32.2%	170
2011/11/12	13	Texas A&M	36	at	33	Kansas St.	34	39.0%	168
2011/11/19	33	Kansas St.	32	at	31	Texas	34	48.7%	161
2011/12/03	84	Iowa St.	29	at	33	Kansas St.	38	80.1%	168

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-105.9
Most difficult game left: October 29, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 26.3%
Notes: It took some luck to beat Texas Tech. It'll take a miracle to win in two weeks.

No longer perfect: Illinois, Georgia Tech, Michigan.

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