The Tempo-Free Gridiron

Counting Down the Champions, #1: 2005 Texas Longhorns

2012-01-09T15:06:00.000-08:00

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2005/09/03	108	/ 104	LA-Lafayette	3	at	8	/ 10	Texas	60	168	98.3%	/ 96.9%
2005/09/10	3	/ 6	Texas	25	at	12	/ 13	Ohio St.	22	157	52.5%	/ 33.1%
2005/09/17	96	/ 107	Rice	10	at	2	/ 7	Texas	51	157	98.0%	/ 97.1%
2005/10/01	4	/ 7	Texas	51	at	43	/ 44	Missouri	20	189	82.4%	/ 89.7%
2005/10/08	4	/ 3	Texas	45	vs	7	/ 24	Oklahoma	12	167	55.8%	/ 70.7%
2005/10/15	30	/ 28	Colorado	17	at	4	/ 2	Texas	42	173	87.4%	/ 73.9%
2005/10/22	14	/ 14	Texas Tech	17	at	2	/ 2	Texas	52	184	81.9%	/ 73.2%
2005/10/29	2	/ 2	Texas	47	at	68	/ 80	Oklahoma St.	28	186	91.0%	/ 94.6%
2005/11/05	3	/ 2	Texas	62	at	87	/ 84	Baylor	0	164	95.8%	/ 96.1%
2005/11/12	49	/ 38	Kansas	14	at	1	/ 2	Texas	66	175	93.6%	/ 86.0%
2005/11/25	1	/ 2	Texas	40	at	44	/ 48	Texas A&M	29	171	92.5%	/ 91.4%
2005/12/03	2	/ 1	Texas	70	vs	36	/ 29	Colorado	3	166	88.7%	/ 75.8%
2006/01/04	1	/ 1	Texas	41	vs	3	/ 2	USC	38	182	62.6%	/ 38.8%

Texas Longhorns
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2005	0.948	1	0.538	62	36.0	1	11.2	3	170.5	55

Justin

They were called the greatest college football team ever assembled. Eleven players went in the NFL draft: seven on the first day, four on the second. Their offense had two Heisman winners.

And the best BCS champion in our countdown defeated them, 41-38, in the 2006 BCS championship game. In retrospect, the blind "arrogance" of Will Ferrell versus the cool, justified confidence of Matthew McConaughey in this pregame clip sums up the pregame attitudes better than I can say here.

This Texas team was the clear TFG #1 heading into this game, listed at 62.6% likely to win. So why Texas and not USC? The Longhorns eeked by (12) Ohio State, but from there on out simply dominated their competition. They put up 26.9 PPH against (7) Oklahoma, 28.3 PPH against (14) Texas Tech, and averaged 33.0 PPH in their two meetings against (30) Colorado. On top of that, their defense was the #3 defense in FBS that year, only allowing 11.2 PPH. USC, by comparison, allowed 12.7 PPH in their season. So why all the USC hype? They were the defending national champions (possibly two-time national champions, depending on who you ask), played a tougher schedule than Texas, and defeated more top-30 teams than the Longhorns. But USC also had more close calls than Texas, which should have been cause for concern (who remembers the "Bush push" against then-TFG#27 Notre Dame?). In the end, the Longhorns proved that they and not the over-hyped Trojans were the team of the decade.

Texas Longhorns
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2005	1.000	1	0.500	65	29.5	2	8.4	7	169.8	67

Eddie

(1) Texas beat out one of the greatest teams of all time in the 2006 Rose Bowl in (2) Southern Cal, and that tells you something about Vince Young's Longhorns. After beating (15) Ohio State by a field goal in September, nobody came within 10 or held the Longhorns to fewer than 40 points until the Rose Bowl. Even then, the Trojans only came within a field goal of the Longhorns. Texas's offensive efficiency of 35.1 +/- 11.1 PPH is amazing. To put that in perspective, we'd expect Vince Young and company to hang 27.8 PPH against this year's LSU Tiger defense. That's roughly equal to 46 points. Think about that for a second. This year's top two teams played to a 9-6 final score in overtime, and RBA expects Texas to score over 40 points against them. Texas's defense is very good at 4.4 +/- 7.5 PPH. That's not quite as good as many of the teams on this list, but they didn't have to be due to their explosive offense, making them the top team in our countdown.

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Counting Down the Champions, #2: 2008 Florida

2012-01-09T14:37:00.000-08:00

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2008/08/30	43	/ 59	Hawaii	10	at	7	/ 2	Florida	56	148	77.8%	/ 68.3%
2008/09/06	74	/ 76	Miami-FL	3	at	4	/ 1	Florida	26	148	95.3%	/ 85.3%
2008/09/20	3	/ 2	Florida	30	at	19	/ 36	Tennessee	6	135	66.7%	/ 72.5%
2008/09/27	56	/ 59	Mississippi	31	at	2	/ 1	Florida	30	162	93.8%	/ 89.4%
2008/10/04	4	/ 2	Florida	38	at	54	/ 66	Arkansas	7	157	82.0%	/ 90.6%
2008/10/11	6	/ 11	LSU	21	at	3	/ 3	Florida	51	155	66.0%	/ 55.6%
2008/10/25	34	/ 40	Kentucky	5	at	3	/ 2	Florida	63	153	88.4%	/ 72.7%
2008/11/01	9	/ 12	Georgia	10	vs	2	/ 1	Florida	49	148	68.5%	/ 55.9%
2008/11/08	2	/ 1	Florida	42	at	50	/ 50	Vanderbilt	14	144	90.6%	/ 85.4%
2008/11/15	24	/ 26	South Carolina	6	at	2	/ 1	Florida	56	159	87.0%	/ 76.7%
2008/11/29	2	/ 1	Florida	45	at	23	/ 25	Florida St.	15	160	87.3%	/ 84.5%
2008/12/06	2	/ 1	Florida	31	vs	8	/ 5	Alabama	20	145	69.8%	/ 60.7%
2009/01/08	4	/ 3	Oklahoma	14	vs	2	/ 1	Florida	24	165	67.2%	/ 55.2%

Florida Gators
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2008	0.947	2	0.640	5	38.5	1	12.2	6	159.0	111

Justin

Let's just get this out of the way: From the Tebow-Tebow Tebow Tebow the Tebow-Tebow Tebow, the Tebow Tebow Tebow is Tebow PPH. The Tebow 10 Tebow Tebow a Tebow Tebow than Tebow PPH. Tebow one Tebow Tebow Tebow had an Tebow Tebow than Tebow PPH: the Tebow-Tebow Tebow Gators Tebow by Tim Tebow. In all seriousness, what this team did to even quality opposition was scary. They hung 21.4 PPH on an Alabama squad whose previous worst was 20.4 PPH on the road against (5) Georgia. They put up

22.2 PPH against (19) Tennessee;
28.1 PPH against (23) Florida State;
32.9 PPH against (6) LSU;
33.1 PPH against (9) Georgia; and
35.2 PPH against (24) South Carolina.

And keep in mind that these are raw efficiencies, not adjusted for strength of opponent. I'm not a Tebow fanboy by any stretch of the imagination, and you can argue that it was because of the receivers or the offensive scheme or that Urban Meyer ran up the score (Eddie will address that) but our numbers predict that the 2008 Gators would put up 39 points on this year's LSU squad. The only reason they didn't finish the year at the top of the TFG rankings was because their defensive efficiency wasn't quite up to par -- USC had an other-worldly 7.2 PPH -- but when you've got the top-rated offense over the last 10 years ... well, maybe you don't need to worry as much about your defense.

Florida Gators
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2008	1.000	1	0.559	7	26.4	3	9.1	8	163.4	102

Eddie

Say what you will about Tim Tebow in the NFL, but he really was an astounding collegiate quarterback. (1) Florida was challenged exactly one time during the regular season: a 31-30 loss to (60) Ole Miss where Tebow was stopped at the one yard line on the go ahead score. In contrast, Florida beat (37) Tennessee by 24, (11) LSU by 30, (13) Georgia by 39, (27) South Carolina by 50, (27) Florida State by 30, and a very good (5) Alabama by 11. They even beat (3) Oklahoma by 10 in the national championship game. Much like this year's Southern Miss, the Gators played up to their competition offensively, sporting a ridiculous 21.7 -/+ 8.7 PPH efficiency (note the sign change). The Gators didn't play exceptional defense at 7.3 +/- 3.5 PPH, but they didn't have to with an offense like that. One can only wonder how they could have performed if they hadn't put the scrubs in so early in the ball game after building huge leads.

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Counting Down the Champions, #3: 2004 USC Trojans

2012-01-09T12:04:00.000-08:00

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2004/08/28	20	/ 26	Virginia Tech	13	vs	4	/ 2	USC	24	147	74.5%	/ 73.6%
2004/09/11	45	/ 58	Colorado St.	0	at	6	/ 1	USC	49	164	92.2%	/ 84.8%
2004/09/18	2	/ 1	USC	42	at	82	/ 95	BYU	10	174	96.0%	/ 93.2%
2004/09/25	3	/ 1	USC	31	at	55	/ 47	Stanford	28	153	89.4%	/ 94.8%
2004/10/09	9	/ 4	California	17	at	4	/ 2	USC	23	147	77.2%	/ 78.0%
2004/10/16	20	/ 23	Arizona St.	7	at	3	/ 1	USC	45	162	84.2%	/ 76.4%
2004/10/23	72	/ 78	Washington	0	at	2	/ 1	USC	38	175	97.1%	/ 94.3%
2004/10/30	2	/ 2	USC	42	at	44	/ 41	Washington St.	12	183	87.0%	/ 82.0%
2004/11/06	1	/ 2	USC	28	at	36	/ 31	Oregon St.	20	183	87.5%	/ 81.4%
2004/11/13	93	/ 71	Arizona	9	at	1	/ 2	USC	49	161	98.1%	/ 96.4%
2004/11/27	34	/ 33	Notre Dame	10	at	2	/ 2	USC	41	155	87.5%	/ 83.6%
2004/12/04	2	/ 2	USC	29	at	37	/ 30	UCLA	24	160	89.8%	/ 89.0%
2005/01/04	2	/ 1	USC	55	vs	1	/ 6	Oklahoma	19	166	40.6%	/ 45.0%

USC Trojans
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2004	0.928	2	0.607	24	30.4	1	10.9	2	167.2	83

Justin

After the 2003 season USC set out to prove that they were the team to beat. With the exception of the week of November 13th, though, it was the Oklahoma Sooners who were the wire-to-wire TFG #1. USC, Auburn, and Miami jostled around for the #2 spot most of the season, but by the time of the BCS title game it was clear that Oklahoma and USC were the top two teams in college football. Once again, the BCS and TFG agree on this fact. Oklahoma had the #2 offense at 29.7 PPH and the #1 defense at 9.2 PPH, while the Trojans had the top-rated offense and the second-rated defense. Even against top-rated teams such as (9) Cal and (20) Virginia Tech -- who would finish the season at #5 and #9, respectively -- the Trojans put up solid performances. The title game wasn't even close, as the final score of 55-19 doesn't even start to describe the degree to which USC dominated Oklahoma. Auburn went 13-0, but thanks to the BCS format didn't get a shot at USC. TFG says they only would have had a 39.8% chance against the Trojans, but those are roughly the odds that USC had against the Sooners. Chalk up another argument for a plus-one or even an eight-team playoff.

USC Trojans
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2004	1.000	1	0.552	19	23.7	5	7.0	4	170.4	63

Eddie

Looking back on history, the 2004 season could be remembered as the year where blind conference loyalty and homerism leaped to the forefront of college broadcasting. (1) Southern Cal was an unquestioned champion according to RBA but faced weak opposition in the championship because the BCS cast aside (3) Auburn instead of (6) Oklahoma, leading SEC fans into a non-stop redneck publicity campaign that continues to this day. Between Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Matt Leinart, Dwayne Jarrett, Steve Smith, and an embarrassment of riches on the lines and two-deep, the Trojans sported the most consistent offense on this list at 24.7 +/- 1.9 PPH. Their defense had moments of weakness, surrendering 28 to Stanford and 20 to Oregon State, but were otherwise dominating at 1.9 +/- 10.4 PPH. The Trojans left little doubt that they were a legitimate national champion. Oh, the #2 team that should have been playing in the national championship game against USC was... (2) Boise State.

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Counting Down the Champions, #4: 2009 Alabama Crimson Tide

2012-01-08T16:33:00.000-08:00

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2009/09/05	19	/ 25	Virginia Tech	24	vs	9	/ 7	Alabama	34	165	68.9%	/ 78.7%
2009/09/12	109	/ 105	FIU	14	at	8	/ 7	Alabama	40	160	98.0%	/ 96.4%
2009/09/19	115	/ 115	North Texas	7	at	9	/ 8	Alabama	53	146	98.6%	/ 97.0%
2009/09/26	53	/ 56	Arkansas	7	at	9	/ 7	Alabama	35	165	89.2%	/ 83.1%
2009/10/03	7	/ 7	Alabama	38	at	49	/ 42	Kentucky	20	164	80.8%	/ 79.9%
2009/10/10	7	/ 5	Alabama	22	at	14	/ 21	Mississippi	3	159	58.9%	/ 64.5%
2009/10/17	35	/ 28	South Carolina	6	at	6	/ 3	Alabama	20	158	89.3%	/ 75.0%
2009/10/24	21	/ 20	Tennessee	10	at	4	/ 6	Alabama	12	155	86.0%	/ 78.9%
2009/11/07	12	/ 17	LSU	15	at	5	/ 4	Alabama	24	155	70.9%	/ 75.1%
2009/11/14	5	/ 4	Alabama	31	at	51	/ 53	Mississippi St.	3	136	86.5%	/ 91.4%
2009/11/27	4	/ 4	Alabama	26	at	36	/ 28	Auburn	21	156	85.1%	/ 81.0%
2009/12/05	1	/ 4	Florida	13	vs	4	/ 1	Alabama	32	139	33.7%	/ 36.4%
2010/01/07	4	/ 3	Texas	21	vs	3	/ 1	Alabama	37	167	52.6%	/ 52.8%

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2009	0.914	3	0.619	13	27.3	4	10.6	3	157.7	114

Justin

This is the second consecutive appearance in our countdown by Nick Saban. It's also the second appearance of a team that played during the life of this blog, and the second that we had to explain away as being not the best team in college football that year. The Tebow Gators with their 32.7 PPH offense and 11.5 PPH defense finished the year 0.018 ahead of the Crimson Tide in our rankings despite having lost to them in the title game. (Once again, we refer you to Ken Massey's comment about the best team not always winning.) Don't get me wrong; Alabama had a bruisingly efficient offense that ranked 4th in the nation once adjusted for strength of schedule and pace -- something that not all critics take into account -- and a solid defense. That's not to say that this team didn't have their close calls. They needed a blocked FG just to get past Tennessee, as well as fourth quarter comebacks against Virginia Tech, LSU, and Auburn. This team was excellent, but not truly dominating to the same degree as the remaining teams in our countdown.

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2009	1.000	1	0.548	18	21.8	11	7.4	3	158.2	119

Eddie

2009 Alabama marks the first true RBA #1 in our countdown. Their offense wasn't flashy but managed to put points on the board at a 29.9 +/- 16.5 PPH efficiency. Like virtually every other team on this list, Alabama dominated thanks to its defense. "Mount" Terrance Cody, Rolando McClain, Dont'a Hightower, and Javier Arenas crushed opposing offenses, resulting in a 4.0 +/- 6.7 PPH efficiency. As good as this team was, they were barely the best team of 2009. RBA thinks that the (1a) Crimson Tide stomped all over (1b) Texas in the BCS national championship primarily because Colt McCoy was injured on the first drive of the game because both teams were very evenly matched otherwise.

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Counting Down the Champions, #5: 2003 LSU Tigers

2012-01-08T15:33:00.000-08:00

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2003/08/30	112	/ 113	LA-Monroe	7	at	20	/ 20	LSU	49	171	96.8%	/ 98.6%
2003/09/06	17	/ 16	LSU	59	at	69	/ 74	Arizona	13	173	72.6%	/ 87.6%
2003/09/20	5	/ 3	Georgia	10	at	14	/ 11	LSU	17	181	40.2%	/ 30.0%
2003/09/27	13	/ 9	LSU	41	at	74	/ 83	Mississippi St.	6	158	85.0%	/ 90.4%
2003/10/11	16	/ 16	Florida	19	at	7	/ 11	LSU	7	157	67.2%	/ 51.6%
2003/10/18	12	/ 9	LSU	33	at	39	/ 45	South Carolina	7	156	63.6%	/ 80.1%
2003/10/25	19	/ 21	Auburn	7	at	6	/ 5	LSU	31	148	75.8%	/ 69.0%
2003/11/01	71	/ 83	LA Tech	10	at	6	/ 3	LSU	49	168	94.0%	/ 95.8%
2003/11/15	4	/ 5	LSU	27	at	13	/ 21	Alabama	3	162	60.7%	/ 82.8%
2003/11/22	3	/ 5	LSU	17	at	28	/ 24	Mississippi	14	164	79.8%	/ 84.5%
2003/11/28	13	/ 21	Arkansas	24	at	5	/ 5	LSU	55	150	68.2%	/ 83.0%
2003/12/06	3	/ 4	LSU	34	vs	5	/ 6	Georgia	13	161	53.1%	/ 33.9%
2004/01/04	1	/ 2	Oklahoma	14	vs	3	/ 3	LSU	21	166	39.7%	/ 43.8%

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2003	0.917	3	0.595	20	27.9	5	10.7	3	163.0	110

Justin

Ah, the 2003-2004 season. The first of USC's AP national titles, but the one that the BCS doesn't recognize. TFG, though, actually agrees with the BCS on this one; USC had an excellent offense at 31.1 PPH, but their 13.6 PPH defense didn't do them any favors. LSU, however, is a different story. In fact the main contrast between the 2003 squad and the 2007 team is that this year's team relied more on defense. Look at their last entry, and then look at this one. Only once did a team crack the 20-point barrier against the 2003 Tiger squad, whereas it happened seven times in 2007. Even adjusting for strength of opponent and pace -- two of the 2007 games went into 3OT -- this squad flat-out played defense at a higher level than in later years, and it paid off for them in the form of a national championship.

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2003	0.991	3	0.558	18	23.7	4	7.0	4	164.7	107

Eddie

For the second time in this list, (1) Southern Cal has reason to be upset because they had to sit at home and watch (2) Oklahoma play (3) LSU in the national championship game. This defense was every bit as nasty as 2011's defense. The 2003 team was led by DL Chad Lavalais and CB Corey Webster to a 3.8 +/- 6.3 PPH efficiency. The offense was surprisingly effective at 34.4 +/- 21.3 PPH, even if they were occasionally flaky and completely unmemorable. In the end, they were able to upset (yes, upset) Oklahoma in the national championship game, earning perpetual trolling rights over USC fans.

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Counting Down the Champions, #6: 2007 LSU Tigers

2012-01-08T11:03:00.000-08:00

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2007/08/30	2	/ 6	LSU	45	at	87	/ 77	Mississippi St.	0	159	95.7%	/ 94.3%
2007/09/08	3	/ 30	Virginia Tech	7	at	1	/ 1	LSU	48	158	70.6%	/ 55.2%
2007/09/15	85	/ 96	Middle Tenn.	0	at	1	/ 1	LSU	44	145	98.9%	/ 99.0%
2007/09/22	29	/ 24	South Carolina	16	at	1	/ 3	LSU	28	164	94.4%	/ 91.4%
2007/09/29	1	/ 1	LSU	34	at	115	/ 117	Tulane	9	169	99.2%	/ 99.6%
2007/10/06	4	/ 4	Florida	24	at	1	/ 2	LSU	28	158	81.7%	/ 81.8%
2007/10/13	1	/ 2	LSU	37	at	41	/ 34	Kentucky	43	200	89.4%	/ 90.9%
2007/10/20	11	/ 16	Auburn	24	at	2	/ 3	LSU	30	157	84.5%	/ 82.1%
2007/11/03	2	/ 4	LSU	41	at	26	/ 30	Alabama	34	191	80.7%	/ 86.1%
2007/11/10	101	/ 101	LA Tech	10	at	2	/ 4	LSU	58	175	98.0%	/ 97.4%
2007/11/17	2	/ 3	LSU	41	at	77	/ 84	Mississippi	24	161	94.7%	/ 94.4%
2007/11/23	25	/ 25	Arkansas	50	at	2	/ 5	LSU	48	210	76.6%	/ 75.9%
2007/12/01	28	/ 24	Tennessee	14	vs	2	/ 5	LSU	21	170	76.8%	/ 71.1%
2008/01/07	1	/ 4	Ohio St.	24	vs	2	/ 3	LSU	38	156	36.4%	/ 68.2%

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2007	0.881	2	0.581	33	29.7	3	13.3	9	165.4	86

Justin

It's interesting to note that this is one time where the TFG and BCS rankings agreed on the top two teams. LSU had stumbled twice during the season, losing to (41) Kentucky and (25) Arkansas in a pair of triple-overtime contests. This team is also where we see a trend in BCS champions emerge: from here on out, all teams that win a BCS championship have a top-3 offense or defense, and a top-10 squad on the other side of the ball. In this case the Tigers had one of the most efficient offenses in FBS, and a respectable defense that only allowed 13.3 PPH. This was the year that Les Miles really earned the "Mad Hatter" nickname, with several unorthodox play calls. LSU often went for it on 4th down, succeeding over 80% of the time.

This was also the second year that Ohio State would face -- and lose against -- the SEC champion. As with most of their games, LSU succeeded thanks to their efficient offense and great defense.

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2007	0.991	3	0.548	21	23.8	4	10.1	7	162.1	112

Eddie

The "Year of the Upset" finished with two-loss (3) LSU knocking off one-loss (4) Ohio State in one of the best seasons I can personally remember. RBA considered (1) Southern Cal and (2) West Virginia to be better teams, but LSU was certainly a good team powered by a good, but not otherworldly 3.6 +/- 12.9 PPH defense and a consistent but not great 29.7 +/- 11.8 PPH offense. They lost close games and benefited greatly from 2006 Florida's dismantling of Ohio State and timely flops by (6) Missouri and (2) West Virginia in the final week of the regular season. Before leaving 2007, where were Georgia and their upset fans in all this? Lounging at RBA #8, so quit your whining Bulldog fans.

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Counting Down the Champions, #7: 2006 Florida Gators

2012-01-07T14:44:00.000-08:00

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2006/09/02	57	/ 69	Southern Miss.	7	at	19	/ 16	Florida	34	144	82.5%	/ 78.6%
2006/09/09	86	/ 87	UCF	0	at	16	/ 10	Florida	42	161	94.2%	/ 85.8%
2006/09/16	8	/ 12	Florida	21	at	26	/ 33	Tennessee	20	147	58.7%	/ 68.3%
2006/09/23	66	/ 73	Kentucky	7	at	10	/ 12	Florida	26	154	91.5%	/ 96.6%
2006/09/30	18	/ 26	Alabama	13	at	10	/ 10	Florida	28	148	73.1%	/ 63.2%
2006/10/07	5	/ 13	LSU	10	at	7	/ 5	Florida	23	151	53.8%	/ 72.6%
2006/10/14	4	/ 8	Florida	17	at	9	/ 11	Auburn	27	134	48.8%	/ 60.7%
2006/10/28	18	/ 21	Georgia	14	vs	6	/ 9	Florida	21	152	67.1%	/ 71.5%
2006/11/04	6	/ 10	Florida	25	at	67	/ 56	Vanderbilt	19	155	89.8%	/ 89.1%
2006/11/11	35	/ 30	South Carolina	16	at	9	/ 11	Florida	17	145	79.0%	/ 74.2%
2006/11/25	9	/ 10	Florida	21	at	33	/ 37	Florida St.	14	156	73.7%	/ 75.8%
2006/12/02	8	/ 11	Florida	38	vs	15	/ 21	Arkansas	28	153	56.3%	/ 60.1%
2007/01/08	1	/ 1	Ohio St.	14	vs	8	/ 4	Florida	41	143	24.0%	/ 20.0%

Florida Gators
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2006	0.847	8	0.661	2	23.4	18	11.8	9	165.1	81

Justin

The 2006-2007 season is particularly relevant given that there were many calls for a rematch between BCS#1 Ohio State and BCS#3 Michigan. Florida, though, snuck into the title game thanks to a 13-9 upset victory by UCLA over USC. This Gator team was good but not particularly dominating, with several close calls against second-tier opponents (see: (26) Tennessee, (67) Vandy, and (35) South Carolina). Like most SEC teams, this Florida squad played a slow, considered game that only once broke the 160-plays-per-game mark. Their offense wasn't really considered "dominating" by any measure, which made their 41-14 victory in the title game all that much more surprising. Their offense would flourish in later years, though, as the 2008-2009 Gator squad will demonstrate.

Florida Gators
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2006	0.983	4	0.551	18	19.1	25	8.9	11	165.1	90

Eddie

I know what you're thinking. The 2006 Florida Gators blasted the crap out of the undefeated (1) Ohio State Buckeyes. How could they possibly be the 7th best champion? For starters, somebody has to be near the bottom. Second, Florida didn't win games big like their 2008 championship team. 2008 Florida even had a loss, but it was a respectable loss to (11) Auburn. In fact, it wasn't until the SEC championship game against (22) Arkansas where (11) Florida really became (4) Florida and punched their ticket to the BCS championship game where they would crucify the Buckeyes as 20.0% underdogs. Not bad for a team that only beat (31) Tennessee and (29) South Carolina by one point a piece.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron.

Counting Down the Champions, #8: 2010 Auburn Tigers

2012-01-07T13:58:00.000-08:00

[ Sorry for the delay. A combination of holiday travel and a stomach bug held this up, but here we go. ]

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2010/09/04	103	/ 104	Arkansas St.	26	at	33	/ 33	Auburn	52	181	91.9%	/ 86.8%
2010/09/09	31	/ 32	Auburn	17	at	39	/ 35	Mississippi St.	14	157	40.1%	/ 63.8%
2010/09/18	21	/ 22	Clemson	24	at	31	/ 26	Auburn	27	174	52.7%	/ 55.0%
2010/09/25	22	/ 19	South Carolina	27	at	28	/ 22	Auburn	35	158	55.9%	/ 40.0%
2010/10/02	105	/ 109	LA-Monroe	3	at	23	/ 24	Auburn	52	151	94.1%	/ 90.5%
2010/10/09	19	/ 20	Auburn	37	at	54	/ 44	Kentucky	34	157	64.6%	/ 61.5%
2010/10/16	18	/ 22	Arkansas	43	at	17	/ 17	Auburn	65	172	61.6%	/ 54.8%
2010/10/23	9	/ 12	LSU	17	at	16	/ 14	Auburn	24	159	47.6%	/ 57.2%
2010/10/30	15	/ 13	Auburn	51	at	47	/ 48	Mississippi	31	159	61.8%	/ 70.2%
2010/11/13	18	/ 21	Georgia	31	at	13	/ 11	Auburn	49	151	61.2%	/ 51.4%
2010/11/26	13	/ 12	Auburn	28	at	3	/ 4	Alabama	27	158	25.5%	/ 23.5%
2010/12/04	14	/ 18	South Carolina	17	vs	13	/ 8	Auburn	56	158	50.7%	/ 56.1%
2011/01/10	5	/ 4	Oregon	19	vs	10	/ 7	Auburn	22	182	42.9%	/ 65.2%

Auburn Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2010	0.833	10	0.662	3	30.4	2	16.0	28	166.8	55

Justin

We've discussed this team a few times before. Their whole season was highly improbable, they often won by the skin of their teeth, and they had an absolutely atrocious defense. But just to recap some of the "highlights" of the Auburn season:

a dropped TD pass by Clemson in OT;
a last-minute field goal to beat Kentucky;
three Alabama turnovers inside the Auburn 5;
four failed attempts by the Ducks to punch it in from the 1 (yet they went 2-for-2 in 2pt conversions);
a failure of the Ducks to get the easy 3 on a 4th-and-goal from the 1; and
a tackle that was (correctly) called not-a-tackle in the closing minute of the title game.

What got them through this season was a combination of an efficient offense and a series of freakishly lucky plays. This team wasn't dominating in the way that many of the later teams on our countdown were, and they deservedly end up at the bottom of this list.

Auburn Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2010	0.957	7	0.545	25	26.1	1	13.0	36	158.9	117

Eddie

Our freshest national title memories come first in this countdown. There's little question that Auburn is the worst national champion of the last decade. Sure, they went undefeated, and that counts for something. However, that understates the way that they managed to go undefeated -- winning close games. The Tigers beat (35) Mississippi State by three, (22) Clemson by three, (45) Kentucky by three, (4) Alabama by one, and (4) Oregon by three. Some of those teams were pretty good, so why the disrespect? First, Auburn didn't play a lick of defense in 2010, and RBA favors teams that play good defense. Second, great teams whip opponents. Auburn simply didn't do that. They were marginally favored in several games and scraped by -- just as expected -- suggesting to the computer that they were properly ranked.

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2011 - 2012 Bowl Previews: Part VII

2012-01-02T08:32:00.000-08:00

Today is Part VII of our 2011 - 2012 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Michigan Wolverines vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Outback Bowl
Georgia Bulldogs vs Michigan State Spartans
Allstate BCS National Championship Game
Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Stanford Cardinal
Rose Bowl Game presented by Visio
Oregon Ducks vs Wisconsin Badgers

Full previews after the jump ....

5. Allstate Sugar Bowl

Tuesday, January 3 at 8:30 PM

Michigan Wolverines (10 - 2; 6 - 2 Big Ten)
vs
Virginia Tech Hokies (10 - 2; 7 - 2 ACC)

GUGS Score: 71.9

Eddie

Michigan Wolverines
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.886	17	0.542	29	22.8	12	12.0	26	167.8	44

Virginia Tech Hokies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.817	23	0.526	58	17.7	41	11.2	15	158.2	118

RBA doesn't consider either of these teams to be BCS quality teams. (17) Michigan managed to avoid a certain loss against (4) Wisconsin, lost to (19) Michigan State and (32) Iowa, and were really lucky to beat (20) Notre Dame. On the other side of the ball (23) Virginia Tech's signature win is the... (26) Miami Hurricanes? Quit boring everyone! This game may be a good game to watch, but it's criminal that (8) Boise State has to sit at home and watch it play out. There's little doubt that Michigan has improved throughout 2011, especially on defense. At 0.0 +/- 24.5 PPH, they're still prone to surrendering points to stronger teams, but the good news is that Virginia Tech isn't a great team at 0.784 strength and a 22.2 +/- 9.1 PPH offense. The most surprising statistic is that RBA thinks Virginia Tech's 0.0 +/- 26.6 PPH defense is actually worse than Michigan's. With advantages on offense and defense, expect Michigan to run away late, 34-24, with 54.7% probability.

Justin

Michigan Wolverines
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.798	12	0.567	45	28.7	8	16.6	34	160.4	100

Virginia Tech Hokies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.779	16	0.515	64	23.3	25	14.1	9	158.8	106

Oh look, it's another matchup determined by money instead of the quality of the teams. Technically this could have been something more interesting -- at least I assume it could have been, since the rules governing BCS bowl selection are a bit dense -- but Arkansas-Boise State? Yes, please. Instead we get BCS#11 Virginia Tech and BCS#13 Michigan in the Sugar Bowl. This won't be a bad game, per se, but oh for what could have been. This will be a game with two distinctly different feels; Michigan's offense and Tech's defense are each top-10, whereas the Wolverine defense and the Hokie offense are decidedly second-tier. This is going to come down to which side is able to make better plays when Michigan is on offense. This will be a slow game but likely to be moderately high-scoring. TFG gives the slightest of edges to Michigan, though. Michigan 34, Virginia Tech 31 (52.8%); 159 plays.

Michigan Wolverines Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	67	/ 88	Western Michigan	10	at	62	/ 54	Michigan	34	110	67.8%	/ 81.3%
2011/09/10	28	/ 30	Notre Dame	31	at	39	/ 45	Michigan	35	151	54.9%	/ 34.7%
2011/09/17	116	/ 117	Eastern Michigan	3	at	37	/ 43	Michigan	31	140	96.3%	/ 94.1%
2011/09/24	59	/ 56	SDSU	7	at	31	/ 39	Michigan	28	162	75.8%	/ 58.7%
2011/10/01	79	/ 94	Minnesota	0	at	29	/ 33	Michigan	58	149	86.3%	/ 79.0%
2011/10/08	12	/ 25	Michigan	42	at	68	/ 79	Northwestern	24	169	77.0%	/ 77.0%
2011/10/15	14	/ 26	Michigan	14	at	21	/ 20	Michigan St.	28	158	42.8%	/ 58.8%
2011/10/29	69	/ 70	Purdue	14	at	18	/ 26	Michigan	36	150	86.9%	/ 83.7%
2011/11/05	18	/ 28	Michigan	16	at	38	/ 27	Iowa	24	153	62.9%	/ 39.7%
2011/11/12	21	/ 28	Michigan	31	at	46	/ 45	Illinois	14	157	63.4%	/ 69.4%
2011/11/19	17	/ 25	Nebraska	17	at	16	/ 21	Michigan	45	163	50.5%	/ 47.0%
2011/11/26	17	/ 23	Ohio St.	34	at	12	/ 15	Michigan	40	146	54.8%	/ 53.4%
2012/01/03	16	/ 23	Virginia Tech	--	vs	12	/ 17	Michigan	--	--	52.8%	/ 54.7%

Virginia Tech Hokies Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	9	/ 11	Virginia Tech	17	at	72	/ 78	East Carolina	10	150	83.3%	/ 92.3%
2011/09/17	85	/ 84	Arkansas St.	7	at	11	/ 10	Virginia Tech	26	163	93.5%	/ 94.6%
2011/09/24	11	/ 11	Virginia Tech	30	at	99	/ 103	Marshall	10	157	92.2%	/ 91.5%
2011/10/01	23	/ 10	Clemson	23	at	11	/ 19	Virginia Tech	3	162	73.2%	/ 62.4%
2011/10/08	29	/ 66	Miami-FL	35	at	11	/ 24	Virginia Tech	38	146	69.5%	/ 75.4%
2011/10/15	13	/ 23	Virginia Tech	38	at	71	/ 81	Wake Forest	17	167	78.7%	/ 82.8%
2011/10/22	88	/ 91	Boston College	14	at	12	/ 25	Virginia Tech	30	158	93.2%	/ 86.4%
2011/10/29	13	/ 25	Virginia Tech	14	at	81	/ 73	Duke	10	162	81.9%	/ 79.9%
2011/11/10	12	/ 23	Virginia Tech	37	at	37	/ 40	Georgia Tech	26	147	64.2%	/ 63.7%
2011/11/17	43	/ 48	North Carolina	21	at	13	/ 23	Virginia Tech	24	157	70.1%	/ 59.9%
2011/11/26	14	/ 20	Virginia Tech	38	at	66	/ 69	Virginia	0	151	80.1%	/ 75.9%
2011/12/03	9	/ 23	Virginia Tech	10	vs	35	/ 29	Clemson	38	175	72.1%	/ 61.5%
2012/01/03	16	/ 23	Virginia Tech	--	vs	12	/ 17	Michigan	--	--	47.2%	/ 45.3%

4. Outback Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 1:00 PM

Georgia Bulldogs (9 - 3; 7 - 2 SEC)
vs
Michigan State Spartans (9 - 3; 7 - 2 Big Ten)

GUGS Score: 76.8

Justin

Georgia Bulldogs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.750	20	0.605	20	25.2	15	16.2	29	162.9	85

Michigan State Spartans
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.798	13	0.597	23	23.7	24	13.7	7	163.8	79

While Georgia may have the better losses -- LSU, Boise State, and South Carolina -- the Spartans have a slightly better overall resume according to TFG. On a side note, I'm somewhat disappointed that Georgia didn't beat LSU in the SEC title game, thereby ensuring that the SEC champion would have lost to Boise State ("WHARGGABL! Early-season slip-up! Irrelevant!"). As it is we're got a good matchup between two solid teams. If there's any weakness on the field, it'll be the Georgia defense at 16.2 PPH. The Spartans actually have a top-10 defense at 13.7 PPH -- playing Wisconsin and their top-rated offense twice and only surrendering an average of 23.9 PPH helps -- and a top-25 offense. This will be a close but not particularly quick game, and TFG gives a slight nod to the Spartans. Michigan St. 32, Georgia 31 (56.9%); 163 plays.

Eddie

Georgia Bulldogs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.921	12	0.550	11	22.8	11	10.7	10	159.6	114

Michigan State Spartans
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.878	19	0.542	27	20.7	22	11.4	18	167.1	52

RBA has missed four (19) Michigan State picks and three (12) Georgia picks so far this season, so this one makes me a little nervous. The Spartans are respectable on both sides of the ball, but the Bulldogs win the offensive side of ball. Michigan State's 29.5 +/- 17.4 PPH offense is less efficient but more consistent than the Bulldogs' 36.2 +/- 26.7 PPH. Defensively, these two teams are mirror images with Georgia being negligibly more efficient at 1.7 +/- 18.1 PPH, as opposed to Michigan State's 1.7 +/- 19.3 PPH. With that in mind, RBA expects a Georgia victory, 31-24, with 58.0% confidence.

Georgia Bulldogs Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	23	/ 24	Georgia	21	vs	2	/ 3	Boise St.	35	159	15.1%	/ 33.2%
2011/09/10	19	/ 19	South Carolina	45	at	21	/ 21	Georgia	42	165	63.1%	/ 53.4%
2011/09/24	20	/ 22	Georgia	27	at	71	/ 86	Mississippi	13	169	72.6%	/ 77.8%
2011/10/01	44	/ 35	Mississippi St.	10	at	21	/ 22	Georgia	24	169	75.3%	/ 56.7%
2011/10/08	19	/ 18	Georgia	20	at	33	/ 27	Tennessee	12	152	48.7%	/ 46.7%
2011/10/15	17	/ 16	Georgia	33	at	96	/ 52	Vanderbilt	28	170	87.3%	/ 76.0%
2011/10/29	28	/ 11	Georgia	24	vs	11	/ 16	Florida	20	172	36.2%	/ 33.5%
2011/11/05	110	/ 107	New Mexico St.	16	at	27	/ 18	Georgia	63	164	94.0%	/ 95.5%
2011/11/12	29	/ 38	Auburn	7	at	23	/ 13	Georgia	45	143	59.4%	/ 67.7%
2011/11/19	89	/ 60	Kentucky	10	at	15	/ 11	Georgia	19	157	88.5%	/ 78.1%
2011/11/26	19	/ 12	Georgia	31	at	44	/ 43	Georgia Tech	17	149	68.3%	/ 76.0%
2011/12/03	2	/ 2	LSU	42	vs	17	/ 12	Georgia	10	168	17.2%	/ 18.5%
2012/01/02	13	/ 19	Michigan St.	--	vs	20	/ 12	Georgia	--	--	43.1%	/ 58.0%

Michigan State Spartans Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	113	/ 113	FL-Atlantic	0	at	44	/ 44	Michigan St.	44	140	95.1%	/ 94.2%
2011/09/17	25	/ 45	Michigan St.	13	at	31	/ 27	Notre Dame	31	164	42.7%	/ 46.6%
2011/09/24	95	/ 106	Central Michigan	7	at	32	/ 44	Michigan St.	45	151	88.9%	/ 82.6%
2011/10/01	25	/ 34	Michigan St.	10	at	8	/ 17	Ohio St.	7	156	23.9%	/ 31.0%
2011/10/15	14	/ 26	Michigan	14	at	21	/ 20	Michigan St.	28	158	57.2%	/ 41.2%
2011/10/22	6	/ 4	Wisconsin	31	at	14	/ 14	Michigan St.	37	151	42.3%	/ 27.3%
2011/10/29	10	/ 20	Michigan St.	3	at	19	/ 17	Nebraska	24	153	46.6%	/ 62.7%
2011/11/05	96	/ 112	Minnesota	24	at	16	/ 21	Michigan St.	31	163	92.3%	/ 95.7%
2011/11/12	22	/ 25	Michigan St.	37	at	33	/ 27	Iowa	21	182	57.3%	/ 30.5%
2011/11/19	96	/ 101	Indiana	3	at	21	/ 20	Michigan St.	55	164	89.0%	/ 90.0%
2011/11/26	13	/ 18	Michigan St.	31	at	62	/ 59	Northwestern	17	156	79.4%	/ 73.7%
2011/12/03	3	/ 5	Wisconsin	42	vs	15	/ 19	Michigan St.	39	154	32.0%	/ 34.4%
2012/01/02	13	/ 19	Michigan St.	--	vs	20	/ 12	Georgia	--	--	56.9%	/ 42.0%

3. Allstate BCS National Championship Game

Monday, January 9 at 8:30 PM

Alabama Crimson Tide (10 - 1; 7 - 1 SEC)
vs
LSU Tigers (12 - 0; 9 - 0 SEC)

GUGS Score: 80.3

Eddie

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	1.000	1	0.549	14	26.1	5	5.1	1	156.9	120

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	1.000	2	0.549	17	26.8	4	6.5	2	160.2	113

Another field goal exhibition? Unlikely. (1a) LSU and (1b) Alabama are extremely powerful on both sides of the ball. This game ranks only third on the GUGS system because it should be a defensively oriented game, just not as much as you may expect. Defensively, Alabama holds a slight edge at 0.9 +/- 8.3 PPH to the Tigers' 2.8 +/- 7.5 PPH. Offensively, these two teams are even. LSU is a slightly less efficient but more consistent 35.7 +/- 17.7 PPH, as opposed to the Crimson Tide's 36.2 +/- 20.2. In the end, RBA gives the Bama defense a slight nod, 24-21, with 67.0% confidence.

Justin

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.963	1	0.621	13	33.5	2	9.1	1	152.2	120

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.946	2	0.656	5	33.4	3	10.6	2	156.1	115

Actually the main reasons GUGS isn't hot on this game are that both of us think Alabama will win, and both think it'll be a low-scoring affair. Having said that, I should point out that GUGS like this game more than last year's most interesting game. However, it's difficult to say something new that we didn't say the first time around. I know it seems weird for the computer to keep Alabama on top after they lose to LSU at home, but if you look back at the game it's difficult to argue that the LSU was the better team for the full game. LSU had one drive of more than 40 yards; Alabama had three. LSU had six punts; Alabama had two. Alabama was a slightly underthrown pass away from a touchdown. Throw in that the Crimson Tide went 1-of-5 on 40+ yard field goals when the national average is about 55%, and you'll see that LSU was very lucky to walk out with the win. The question is whether or not Alabama can do it again but clean up their mistakes. I'd be surprised if we saw another low-scoring game, but both of these teams will have had nearly a month off before kickoff. Alabama 34, LSU 32 (59.4%); 154 plays.

Alabama Crimson Tide Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	100	/ 97	Kent St.	7	at	3	/ 2	Alabama	48	172	98.6%	/ 98.2%
2011/09/10	2	/ 3	Alabama	27	at	33	/ 37	Penn State	11	164	79.5%	/ 89.4%
2011/09/17	106	/ 108	North Texas	0	at	1	/ 2	Alabama	41	153	99.1%	/ 98.1%
2011/09/24	12	/ 19	Arkansas	14	at	1	/ 2	Alabama	38	145	86.1%	/ 74.7%
2011/10/01	1	/ 1	Alabama	38	at	3	/ 11	Florida	10	146	58.5%	/ 70.5%
2011/10/08	86	/ 55	Vanderbilt	0	at	1	/ 1	Alabama	34	140	98.5%	/ 94.6%
2011/10/15	1	/ 1	Alabama	52	at	72	/ 69	Mississippi	7	141	96.9%	/ 97.8%
2011/10/22	42	/ 34	Tennessee	6	at	1	/ 1	Alabama	37	138	96.9%	/ 93.0%
2011/11/05	2	/ 3	LSU	9	at	1	/ 1	Alabama	6	143	72.6%	/ 73.0%
2011/11/12	1	/ 1	Alabama	24	at	39	/ 30	Mississippi St.	7	155	93.7%	/ 95.3%
2011/11/26	1	/ 1	Alabama	42	at	39	/ 44	Auburn	14	136	94.7%	/ 96.1%
2012/01/09	2	/ 2	LSU	--	vs	1	/ 1	Alabama	--	--	59.4%	/ 67.0%

LSU Tigers Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	5	/ 9	Oregon	27	vs	9	/ 7	LSU	40	184	45.4%	/ 56.5%
2011/09/15	7	/ 8	LSU	19	at	35	/ 26	Mississippi St.	6	150	69.4%	/ 64.1%
2011/09/24	5	/ 7	LSU	47	at	21	/ 26	West Virginia	21	188	64.4%	/ 35.3%
2011/10/01	62	/ 55	Kentucky	7	at	5	/ 4	LSU	35	162	93.0%	/ 84.7%
2011/10/08	7	/ 13	Florida	11	at	3	/ 3	LSU	41	141	66.6%	/ 54.8%
2011/10/15	3	/ 2	LSU	38	at	32	/ 29	Tennessee	7	143	81.4%	/ 82.7%
2011/10/22	24	/ 30	Auburn	10	at	2	/ 3	LSU	45	144	88.6%	/ 87.0%
2011/11/05	2	/ 3	LSU	9	at	1	/ 1	Alabama	6	143	27.4%	/ 27.0%
2011/11/12	97	/ 95	Western Kentucky	9	at	2	/ 2	LSU	42	151	98.0%	/ 98.4%
2011/11/19	2	/ 2	LSU	52	at	87	/ 88	Mississippi	3	139	96.6%	/ 96.6%
2011/11/25	9	/ 10	Arkansas	17	at	2	/ 2	LSU	41	149	78.2%	/ 77.3%
2011/12/03	2	/ 2	LSU	42	vs	17	/ 12	Georgia	10	168	82.8%	/ 81.5%
2012/01/09	2	/ 2	LSU	--	vs	1	/ 1	Alabama	--	--	40.6%	/ 33.0%

2. Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 8:30 PM

Oklahoma State Cowboys (11 - 1; 8 - 1 Big XII)
vs
Stanford Cardinal (11 - 1; 8 - 1 Pac-12)

GUGS Score: 84.4

Justin

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.826	9	0.559	47	28.4	9	15.2	22	180.4	5

Stanford Cardinal
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.873	5	0.552	53	30.8	4	14.3	13	162.5	88

Technically this is the undercard matchup -- BCS #3 vs BCS #4 -- but GUGS feels it'll be more interesting than the title game, largely thanks to TFG and RBA disagreeing about who will win. Oklahoma State has a tendency to get into track meets with opponents, which doesn't speak well to their defensive efficiency. These teams aren't too different than they were two months ago when they were still undefeated and vying for a spot in the title game. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, Stanford has an advantage on both sides of the ball: 2.4 PPH on offense and 0.9 PPH on defense. Their only hope is to try and play an Oregon-type game against the Cardinal and try to wear down Stanford's defense. The numbers show they've got a 41% change against Stanford, which -- oddly enough -- was the same shot Oregon had in Palo Alto. Stanford 39, Oklahoma St. 36 (59.2%); 171 plays.

Eddie

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.975	4	0.550	12	27.0	3	13.7	39	173.3	7

Stanford Cardinal
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.958	6	0.543	23	27.5	2	10.8	12	167.0	53

Let's just say that these two teams have contrasting defensive styles. (5) Oklahoma State is consistently below average at 15.0 -/+ 2.7 PPH, but (6) Stanford never shows up against strong competition at 0.0 +/- 22.7 PPH. Offensively, this game should be a fireworks display. The Cowboys score at a 35.2 +/- 16.5 PPH clip. The Cardinal are effectively the same at 35.7 +/- 16.4 PPH. RBA says that consistency wins the defensive battle, and the pace turns that small advantage into a large scoreboard differential. Oklahoma State wins, 38-27, with 63.9% confidence.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	110	/ 112	LA-Lafayette	34	at	16	/ 12	Oklahoma St.	61	196	96.7%	/ 94.4%
2011/09/08	34	/ 31	Arizona	14	at	22	/ 10	Oklahoma St.	37	185	69.2%	/ 53.2%
2011/09/18	15	/ 9	Oklahoma St.	59	at	55	/ 58	Tulsa	33	202	66.1%	/ 70.7%
2011/09/24	17	/ 10	Oklahoma St.	30	at	14	/ 14	Texas A&M	29	199	38.3%	/ 52.7%
2011/10/08	89	/ 89	Kansas	28	at	18	/ 10	Oklahoma St.	70	186	91.8%	/ 89.9%
2011/10/15	15	/ 10	Oklahoma St.	38	at	29	/ 34	Texas	26	184	51.6%	/ 52.3%
2011/10/22	15	/ 9	Oklahoma St.	45	at	22	/ 27	Missouri	24	187	42.6%	/ 63.8%
2011/10/29	50	/ 44	Baylor	24	at	12	/ 8	Oklahoma St.	59	190	83.3%	/ 68.5%
2011/11/05	35	/ 34	Kansas St.	45	at	10	/ 7	Oklahoma St.	52	181	75.4%	/ 61.1%
2011/11/12	11	/ 7	Oklahoma St.	66	at	60	/ 62	Texas Tech	6	179	77.1%	/ 78.4%
2011/11/18	9	/ 5	Oklahoma St.	31	at	77	/ 81	Iowa St.	37	211	88.6%	/ 82.2%
2011/12/03	5	/ 7	Oklahoma	10	at	12	/ 4	Oklahoma St.	44	181	36.3%	/ 54.7%
2012/01/02	5	/ 6	Stanford	--	vs	9	/ 4	Oklahoma St.	--	--	40.8%	/ 63.9%

Stanford Cardinal Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	115	/ 107	SJSU	3	at	6	/ 1	Stanford	57	162	98.8%	/ 98.2%
2011/09/10	6	/ 1	Stanford	44	at	90	/ 82	Duke	14	155	91.4%	/ 93.3%
2011/09/17	5	/ 1	Stanford	37	at	40	/ 36	Arizona	10	155	76.6%	/ 79.2%
2011/10/01	76	/ 75	UCLA	19	at	4	/ 3	Stanford	45	152	95.3%	/ 94.7%
2011/10/08	76	/ 67	Colorado	7	at	5	/ 4	Stanford	48	155	95.2%	/ 94.9%
2011/10/15	4	/ 4	Stanford	44	at	82	/ 64	Washington St.	14	157	93.1%	/ 90.8%
2011/10/22	44	/ 32	Washington	21	at	4	/ 2	Stanford	65	159	91.4%	/ 88.3%
2011/10/29	4	/ 2	Stanford	56	at	24	/ 22	USC	48	191	69.6%	/ 83.9%
2011/11/05	4	/ 2	Stanford	38	at	61	/ 60	Oregon St.	13	149	88.6%	/ 92.8%
2011/11/12	7	/ 3	Oregon	53	at	4	/ 5	Stanford	30	166	59.7%	/ 51.2%
2011/11/19	51	/ 44	California	28	at	7	/ 7	Stanford	31	152	84.8%	/ 90.0%
2011/11/26	15	/ 21	Notre Dame	14	at	7	/ 7	Stanford	28	174	65.8%	/ 73.6%
2012/01/02	5	/ 6	Stanford	--	vs	9	/ 4	Oklahoma St.	--	--	59.2%	/ 36.1%

1. Rose Bowl Game presented by Visio

Monday, January 2 at 5:00 PM

Oregon Ducks (10 - 2; 9 - 1 Pac-12)
vs
Wisconsin Badgers (10 - 2; 7 - 2 Big Ten)

GUGS Score: 87.8

Eddie

Oregon Ducks
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.983	3	0.531	45	25.5	7	10.7	11	176.2	3

Wisconsin Badgers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.975	5	0.533	42	28.7	1	11.4	19	161.5	108

After the Arkansas game, this is the one game I have to watch. On one hand, you have the lightning-fast (3) Oregon Ducks with their efficient offense. On the other, you have the slow and grinding (4) Wisconsin offense that pounds defenses into paste. Due to pace, humans tend to overestimate Oregon's raw efficiency, but their 28.4 +/- 5.9 PPH suggests that nobody can stop them for an entire game. Wisconsin has put up a lot of points despite playing slowly, but they have been known to be slowed by tougher teams at 38.4 +/- 19.4 PPH. That's still better than (1a) LSU and (1b) Alabama, but it's a shade below the Ducks. This wouldn't be a problem if the Ducks couldn't play defense. Unfortunately for the Badgers, Oregon's 1.5 +/- 18.5 PPH is roughly equivalent to Wisconsin's 2.9 +/- 17.0 PPH. Oregon will push the pace to exploit their offensive advantage, leading to a 38-31 win but at only 51.7% confidence.

Justin

Oregon Ducks
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.861	6	0.598	22	26.9	10	13.0	6	185.4	1

Wisconsin Badgers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.883	4	0.535	57	35.0	1	15.6	26	157.9	110

This is far and away the most interesting game we've see since we started keeping track of this via GUGS. As Eddie said, the efficiencies of each team are somewhat distorted by pace. Wisconsin possesses the top offense according to TFG, whereas Oregon just sneaks into the top 10. On the flip side, the Oregon defense is well within the top 10 while the Badger defense is about 20 spots lower. The problem for Oregon is that those 20 spots translate to a 2.6 PPH advantage, while Wisconsin's offense holds an 8.1 PPH advantage over the Duck offense. Wisconsin's defense will struggle to keep up with Oregon's pace, while Oregon's defense will struggle simply to keep Wisconsin out of the end zone. If the Badgers can prevent the Ducks from getting a quick start and can use their overpowering offense to keep Oregon's offense off the field, they'll have the advantage. If Oregon is able to get off to the races and can contain the Badger offense -- a difficult task, considering that even in their two losses Wisconsin managed an average of 19.4 PPH on the road -- they've got a shot. It'll be close, but TFG says Wisconsin's offense gives them the edge. Wisconsin 41, Oregon 36 (54.9%); 171 plays.

Oregon Ducks Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	5	/ 9	Oregon	27	vs	9	/ 7	LSU	40	184	54.6%	/ 43.5%
2011/09/10	26	/ 49	Nevada	20	at	10	/ 4	Oregon	69	189	79.2%	/ 76.0%
2011/09/24	8	/ 3	Oregon	56	at	48	/ 35	Arizona	31	188	75.6%	/ 72.4%
2011/10/06	48	/ 51	California	15	at	8	/ 5	Oregon	43	196	87.6%	/ 87.0%
2011/10/15	25	/ 12	Arizona St.	27	at	7	/ 6	Oregon	41	186	78.2%	/ 73.3%
2011/10/22	7	/ 5	Oregon	45	at	86	/ 78	Colorado	2	173	90.9%	/ 93.8%
2011/10/29	89	/ 71	Washington St.	28	at	5	/ 4	Oregon	43	173	97.1%	/ 91.5%
2011/11/05	6	/ 4	Oregon	34	at	45	/ 30	Washington	17	162	80.5%	/ 86.5%
2011/11/12	7	/ 3	Oregon	53	at	4	/ 5	Stanford	30	166	40.3%	/ 48.8%
2011/11/19	20	/ 12	USC	38	at	5	/ 3	Oregon	35	181	71.5%	/ 78.1%
2011/11/26	65	/ 66	Oregon St.	21	at	4	/ 3	Oregon	49	197	88.2%	/ 92.9%
2011/12/02	75	/ 65	UCLA	31	at	7	/ 3	Oregon	49	183	90.6%	/ 89.8%
2012/01/02	4	/ 5	Wisconsin	--	vs	6	/ 3	Oregon	--	--	45.1%	/ 51.7%

Wisconsin Badgers Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/01	107	/ 106	UNLV	17	at	14	/ 11	Wisconsin	51	146	96.5%	/ 94.7%
2011/09/10	40	/ 66	Oregon St.	0	at	15	/ 7	Wisconsin	35	153	79.4%	/ 78.4%
2011/09/17	13	/ 3	Wisconsin	49	vs	47	/ 64	Northern Ill.	7	160	76.3%	/ 71.8%
2011/10/01	17	/ 26	Nebraska	17	at	7	/ 2	Wisconsin	48	159	73.9%	/ 66.2%
2011/10/15	95	/ 95	Indiana	7	at	6	/ 3	Wisconsin	59	162	96.7%	/ 95.3%
2011/10/22	6	/ 4	Wisconsin	31	at	14	/ 14	Michigan St.	37	151	57.7%	/ 72.7%
2011/10/29	7	/ 6	Wisconsin	29	at	9	/ 12	Ohio St.	33	159	47.1%	/ 76.4%
2011/11/05	72	/ 72	Purdue	17	at	7	/ 8	Wisconsin	62	166	91.6%	/ 91.9%
2011/11/12	6	/ 6	Wisconsin	42	at	92	/ 110	Minnesota	13	129	93.7%	/ 96.7%
2011/11/19	6	/ 6	Wisconsin	28	at	47	/ 52	Illinois	17	144	84.1%	/ 85.6%
2011/11/26	22	/ 37	Penn State	7	at	6	/ 4	Wisconsin	45	155	70.7%	/ 79.7%
2011/12/03	3	/ 5	Wisconsin	42	vs	15	/ 19	Michigan St.	39	154	68.0%	/ 65.6%
2012/01/02	4	/ 5	Wisconsin	--	vs	6	/ 3	Oregon	--	--	54.9%	/ 48.3%

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron.

Counting Down the Champions: Introduction

2012-01-02T08:03:00.000-08:00

Continuing with the trivia of this season, we've decided to take a shot at ranking the eight most recent BCS champions according to their final TFG and RBA standings for their respective years. Because TFG and RBA use different methodologies than the BCS it's often the case that the top two teams in our rankings are very different than those in the BCS. While the BCS focuses extensively on win-loss record -- making it effectively impossible for a two-loss team to get into the championship game -- TFG and RBA ignore these in favor of their own formulas, making it possible for a team not even in the title game to finish the season on top. For each of the last eight BCS champions we'll look at their season and how they got into the title game. Just as a reminder, those teams are:

2010: Auburn Tigers
2009: Alabama Crimson Tide
2008: Florida Gators
2007: LSU Tigers
2006: Florida Gators
2005: Texas Longhorns
2004: USC Trojans
2003: LSU Tigers

Our countdown will start tomorrow and culminate on the 9th, just before this year's title game.

2011 - 2012 Bowl Previews: Part VI

2011-12-29T13:46:00.000-08:00

Today is Part VI of our 2011 - 2012 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

TicketCity Bowl
Houston Cougars vs Penn State Nittany Lions
Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl
Florida Gators vs Ohio State Buckeyes
Capital One Bowl
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs South Carolina Gamecocks
Discover Orange Bowl
Clemson Tigers vs West Virginia Mountaineers
Champs Sports Bowl
Florida State Seminoles vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Full previews after the jump ....

10. TicketCity Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 12:00 PM

Houston Cougars (11 - 1; 8 - 1 Conference-USA)
vs
Penn State Nittany Lions (8 - 3; 6 - 2 Big Ten)

GUGS Score: 59.0

Justin

Houston Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.704	24	0.359	108	26.0	13	18.4	55	181.0	4

Penn State Nittany Lions
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.680	27	0.624	10	16.4	89	12.2	3	167.8	47

In the grand scheme of things, it's best that Houston lost their final game of the year. They weren't a particularly good undefeated non-BCS team, and it's likely that had they made it into a big bowl game we would have seen shades of 2007 Hawaii all over again. That said, the Cougars are a good team with a top-tier offense and a decent defense; Penn State, on the other hand, matches the third-best defense in FBS with Rice's offense. That might not be a fatal blow, though, as even the Owls managed to hang 34 points on Houston. Houston, however, certainly won't put up 73 against the Nittany Lion defense. Similar to last year's TCU/Wisconsin game, this will be a referendum on how TFG handles two top teams with very different resumes. TFG says that the Cougar offense will be strong enough to power past the Nittany Lion defense, and Penn State's inept offense won't be strong enough to put up enough points. Houston 33, Penn State 30 (52.8%); 174 plays.

Eddie

Houston Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.789	28	0.472	84	22.4	15	15.3	57	175.5	4

Penn State Nittany Lions
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.712	38	0.543	26	13.2	90	10.2	6	163.4	98

As Justin suggests, this game pits two contrasting styles, but RBA doesn't give Penn State quite the credit TFG does. The Penn State defense is good but not great at 2.4 +/- 15.6 PPH. That's good for a lot of teams, and it matches up quite well against a Houston 39.2 +/- 33.7 PPH offense known to disappear against high caliber competition. It's difficult to make that claim too strongly, since Houston has played only one team in the RBA top 40 this year (#15 Southern Miss, a 49-28 loss). The other side of the ball should be a comedy of errors, with Penn State's anemic 20.5 +/- 14.7 PPH offense facing off against the generous 11.2 +/- 8.3 PPH Houston defense. In the end, RBA thinks that Penn State simply lacks the firepower to keep up with Houston, ending with a 28-20 Cougar victory with 59.1% confidence.

Houston Cougars Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	78	/ 66	UCLA	34	at	63	/ 67	Houston	38	170	74.5%	/ 50.7%
2011/09/10	65	/ 63	Houston	48	at	109	/ 111	North Texas	23	186	73.3%	/ 68.4%
2011/09/17	63	/ 67	Houston	35	at	77	/ 79	LA Tech	34	205	51.2%	/ 64.5%
2011/09/29	63	/ 63	Houston	49	at	96	/ 97	UTEP	42	178	62.1%	/ 75.5%
2011/10/08	80	/ 93	East Carolina	3	at	66	/ 56	Houston	56	182	67.1%	/ 56.0%
2011/10/22	94	/ 99	Marshall	28	at	52	/ 45	Houston	63	169	84.8%	/ 70.9%
2011/10/27	98	/ 98	Rice	34	at	46	/ 47	Houston	73	179	87.2%	/ 81.7%
2011/11/05	40	/ 48	Houston	56	at	112	/ 119	UAB	13	176	89.2%	/ 84.0%
2011/11/10	35	/ 50	Houston	73	at	114	/ 113	Tulane	17	187	91.3%	/ 90.1%
2011/11/19	65	/ 72	SMU	7	at	32	/ 45	Houston	37	167	68.8%	/ 61.5%
2011/11/25	27	/ 24	Houston	48	at	30	/ 50	Tulsa	16	190	53.1%	/ 47.1%
2011/12/03	43	/ 15	Southern Miss.	49	at	23	/ 28	Houston	28	205	63.2%	/ 52.0%
2012/01/02	27	/ 38	Penn State	--	vs	24	/ 28	Houston	--	--	52.8%	/ 59.1%

Penn State Nittany Lions Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	2	/ 3	Alabama	27	at	33	/ 37	Penn State	11	164	20.5%	/ 10.6%
2011/09/17	30	/ 38	Penn State	14	at	54	/ 61	Temple	10	155	53.7%	/ 66.5%
2011/09/24	117	/ 116	Eastern Michigan	6	at	29	/ 37	Penn State	34	156	97.6%	/ 96.7%
2011/10/01	24	/ 39	Penn State	16	at	97	/ 98	Indiana	10	193	85.0%	/ 84.2%
2011/10/08	25	/ 17	Iowa	3	at	30	/ 40	Penn State	13	154	56.8%	/ 47.8%
2011/10/15	73	/ 78	Purdue	18	at	24	/ 35	Penn State	23	161	86.9%	/ 83.3%
2011/10/22	26	/ 40	Penn State	34	at	69	/ 86	Northwestern	24	165	68.3%	/ 75.6%
2011/10/29	43	/ 46	Illinois	7	at	25	/ 36	Penn State	10	172	74.0%	/ 51.7%
2011/11/12	16	/ 18	Nebraska	17	at	27	/ 37	Penn State	14	180	47.9%	/ 34.5%
2011/11/19	26	/ 31	Penn State	20	at	11	/ 18	Ohio St.	14	138	39.0%	/ 34.2%
2011/11/26	22	/ 37	Penn State	7	at	6	/ 4	Wisconsin	45	155	29.3%	/ 20.3%
2012/01/02	27	/ 38	Penn State	--	vs	24	/ 28	Houston	--	--	47.2%	/ 40.9%

9. Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 1:00 PM

Florida Gators (5 - 6; 3 - 5 SEC)
vs
Ohio State Buckeyes (6 - 6; 3 - 5 Big Ten)

GUGS Score: 60.9

Eddie

Florida Gators
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.885	18	0.556	8	20.4	24	7.9	3	161.3	109

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.841	21	0.531	46	18.6	37	12.0	25	159.1	116

In spite of their combined 12 losses, RBA considers both these teams to be top 25 caliber. Contrasting with my Houston-Penn State bowl preview, Ohio State's 4.2 +/- 15.7 PPH defense is only slightly worse than the Nittany Lions', but their offense is considerably better at 25.2 +/- 13.1 PPH. As ugly as it has been for the Gators, their offense is only marginally worse than the Cougars at 35.4 +/- 29.9 PPH. They only look inept because (a) they play much slower and (b) injuries to the quarterback against top-flight competition. The Gators' big problem is on defense, where their 0.0 +/- 28.2 PPH efficiency suggest that they are prone to really bad streaks against good teams. As sad as Florida's defense has become, their offense should be able to move the ball against the Buckeyes. In fact, RBA is so confident that Florida is given a 75.0% chance of beating Ohio State, 28-20.

Justin

Florida Gators
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.756	18	0.656	4	22.8	27	14.5	16	160.4	99

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.750	19	0.563	46	23.0	26	14.8	18	158.6	107

"How," you might ask, "can a bowl game with two teams at or below 0.500 be one of the ten best bowl games this year? This is not 2007." Very true. However, both teams are very good, this is going to be close. The Gators are having a down year, but their losses are to (1) Alabama, (2) LSU, (10) Florida State, (15) South Carolina, (20) Georgia, and (40) Auburn. Of those, only the Auburn loss is particularly egregious. On top of that -- ignoring Alabama and LSU -- the Gators never surrendered more than 14.0 PPH. The Buckeyes' resume is a bit more damaging, not necessarily because any of the losses are bad per se -- (12) Michigan, (13) Michigan State, (22) Nebraska, (27) Penn State, and (29) Miami are all good teams -- it's just that there are so many of them. Both teams are slow with strong defenses, so this one will likely be a defensive slog in search of a few moments of excitement. Expect this one to come down to a late drive or field goal. TFG says this one is a coin toss, with the slight edge going to Florida. In reality, this one's too close to call. Florida 30, Ohio St. 29 (50.7%); 159 plays.

Florida Gators Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	113	/ 111	FL-Atlantic	3	at	11	/ 16	Florida	41	149	97.5%	/ 97.7%
2011/09/10	95	/ 94	UAB	0	at	8	/ 14	Florida	39	152	96.5%	/ 93.1%
2011/09/17	38	/ 25	Tennessee	23	at	4	/ 11	Florida	33	167	88.6%	/ 75.4%
2011/09/24	6	/ 9	Florida	48	at	53	/ 50	Kentucky	10	170	81.4%	/ 85.3%
2011/10/01	1	/ 1	Alabama	38	at	3	/ 11	Florida	10	146	41.5%	/ 29.5%
2011/10/08	7	/ 13	Florida	11	at	3	/ 3	LSU	41	141	33.4%	/ 45.2%
2011/10/15	8	/ 14	Florida	6	at	27	/ 25	Auburn	17	149	55.2%	/ 82.4%
2011/10/29	28	/ 11	Georgia	24	vs	11	/ 16	Florida	20	172	63.8%	/ 66.5%
2011/11/05	79	/ 42	Vanderbilt	21	at	13	/ 20	Florida	26	158	88.3%	/ 82.6%
2011/11/12	13	/ 20	Florida	12	at	17	/ 10	South Carolina	17	145	48.4%	/ 39.6%
2011/11/26	11	/ 11	Florida St.	21	at	16	/ 17	Florida	7	152	45.3%	/ 63.0%
2012/01/02	19	/ 21	Ohio St.	--	vs	18	/ 18	Florida	--	--	50.7%	/ 75.0%

Ohio State Buckeyes Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	119	/ 119	Akron	0	at	4	/ 5	Ohio St.	42	151	99.4%	/ 99.5%
2011/09/10	75	/ 86	Toledo	22	at	1	/ 5	Ohio St.	27	169	97.6%	/ 96.7%
2011/09/17	3	/ 14	Ohio St.	6	at	29	/ 40	Miami-FL	24	142	75.7%	/ 85.3%
2011/09/24	75	/ 70	Colorado	17	at	7	/ 15	Ohio St.	37	146	93.2%	/ 91.4%
2011/10/01	25	/ 34	Michigan St.	10	at	8	/ 17	Ohio St.	7	156	76.1%	/ 69.0%
2011/10/08	9	/ 19	Ohio St.	27	at	24	/ 26	Nebraska	34	162	56.7%	/ 56.9%
2011/10/15	9	/ 18	Ohio St.	17	at	36	/ 33	Illinois	7	147	64.0%	/ 27.9%
2011/10/29	7	/ 6	Wisconsin	29	at	9	/ 12	Ohio St.	33	159	52.9%	/ 23.6%
2011/11/05	99	/ 102	Indiana	20	at	8	/ 11	Ohio St.	34	149	95.1%	/ 92.9%
2011/11/12	8	/ 16	Ohio St.	23	at	78	/ 74	Purdue	26	178	85.6%	/ 85.8%
2011/11/19	26	/ 31	Penn State	20	at	11	/ 18	Ohio St.	14	138	61.0%	/ 65.8%
2011/11/26	17	/ 23	Ohio St.	34	at	12	/ 15	Michigan	40	146	45.2%	/ 46.6%
2012/01/02	19	/ 21	Ohio St.	--	vs	18	/ 18	Florida	--	--	49.3%	/ 25.0%

8. Capital One Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 1:00 PM

Nebraska Cornhuskers (8 - 3; 5 - 3 Big Ten)
vs
South Carolina Gamecocks (9 - 2; 6 - 2 SEC)

GUGS Score: 63.2

Justin

Nebraska Cornhuskers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.736	22	0.591	26	21.4	37	14.2	12	168.7	43

South Carolina Gamecocks
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.780	15	0.622	11	25.0	17	15.0	20	159.5	103

Compared to the previous game the teams are slightly better and the pace should yield slightly more offense. These are two very good teams that have mostly flown under the radar this year. USC (East) had the misfortune of playing Arkansas and Auburn from the SEC West, and came away with two losses. If it weren't for the Auburn loss, USC would have been the team to lose to LSU in the SEC title game. Nebraska's only bad loss was to Northwestern, a team known for punching above their weight; their losses to Wisconsin and Michigan are completely understandable. Both teams have great defenses -- in the top 20 -- but the Gamecocks have an offense that yields 3.6 PPH more than Nebraska's. One potential pitfall for the Gamecocks is their slow pace doesn't lend itself well to comebacks, so they'll need to get a good jump on Nebraska if they want to have a chance. Right now TFG gives the slight edge to the USC offense over the Cornhusker defense. South Carolina 32, Nebraska 29 (56.0%); 164 plays.

Eddie

Nebraska Cornhuskers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.811	25	0.532	43	19.3	30	12.5	32	166.8	61

South Carolina Gamecocks
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.931	10	0.544	22	20.9	21	10.0	5	157.9	119

The Cornhuskers and Gamecocks are surprisingly well matched. Offensively, the only difference between these two teams is their base efficiency. South Carolina's 30.3 +/- 18.8 PPH offense is only marginally more efficient than Nebraska's 28.7 +/- 18.8 PPH. On the other side of the ball, the Huskers are more consistent on defense at 6.8 +/- 11.3 PPH, whereas the Gamecocks are more efficient at 3.2 +/- 13.6 PPH. Slower tempos keep this game closer than the efficiencies dictate, but RBA thinks that Nebraska should be able to exploit South Carolina's defensive inconsistency. RBA says that South Carolina is a 66.6% favorite, but the 25-24 score suggests that it will be tight throughout.

Nebraska Cornhuskers Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	70	/ 73	Fresno St.	29	at	14	/ 13	Nebraska	42	166	90.0%	/ 89.1%
2011/09/17	60	/ 51	Washington	38	at	17	/ 15	Nebraska	51	177	82.7%	/ 79.9%
2011/09/24	18	/ 13	Nebraska	38	at	104	/ 92	Wyoming	14	161	89.2%	/ 92.0%
2011/10/01	17	/ 26	Nebraska	17	at	7	/ 2	Wisconsin	48	159	26.1%	/ 33.8%
2011/10/08	9	/ 19	Ohio St.	27	at	24	/ 26	Nebraska	34	162	43.3%	/ 43.1%
2011/10/22	18	/ 23	Nebraska	41	at	100	/ 112	Minnesota	14	160	87.7%	/ 89.2%
2011/10/29	10	/ 20	Michigan St.	3	at	19	/ 17	Nebraska	24	153	53.4%	/ 37.3%
2011/11/05	67	/ 65	Northwestern	28	at	12	/ 16	Nebraska	25	171	85.4%	/ 79.1%
2011/11/12	16	/ 18	Nebraska	17	at	27	/ 37	Penn State	14	180	52.1%	/ 65.5%
2011/11/19	17	/ 25	Nebraska	17	at	16	/ 21	Michigan	45	163	49.5%	/ 53.0%
2011/11/25	36	/ 30	Iowa	7	at	23	/ 25	Nebraska	20	169	59.3%	/ 61.9%
2012/01/02	15	/ 10	South Carolina	--	vs	22	/ 25	Nebraska	--	--	44.0%	/ 33.4%

South Carolina Gamecocks Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	20	/ 19	South Carolina	56	vs	74	/ 81	East Carolina	37	180	81.8%	/ 84.1%
2011/09/10	19	/ 19	South Carolina	45	at	21	/ 21	Georgia	42	165	36.9%	/ 46.6%
2011/09/17	45	/ 41	Navy	21	at	21	/ 20	South Carolina	24	139	74.7%	/ 62.2%
2011/09/24	79	/ 57	Vanderbilt	3	at	27	/ 21	South Carolina	21	147	86.9%	/ 78.5%
2011/10/01	28	/ 13	Auburn	16	at	18	/ 18	South Carolina	13	170	63.1%	/ 56.0%
2011/10/08	70	/ 57	Kentucky	3	at	27	/ 15	South Carolina	54	175	84.3%	/ 70.3%
2011/10/15	18	/ 11	South Carolina	14	at	45	/ 36	Mississippi St.	12	163	60.8%	/ 56.9%
2011/10/29	17	/ 9	South Carolina	14	at	45	/ 35	Tennessee	3	151	57.9%	/ 65.8%
2011/11/05	17	/ 13	South Carolina	28	at	22	/ 14	Arkansas	44	159	49.8%	/ 58.2%
2011/11/12	13	/ 20	Florida	12	at	17	/ 10	South Carolina	17	145	51.6%	/ 60.4%
2011/11/26	32	/ 32	Clemson	13	at	18	/ 9	South Carolina	34	157	62.3%	/ 70.2%
2012/01/02	15	/ 10	South Carolina	--	vs	22	/ 25	Nebraska	--	--	56.0%	/ 66.6%

7. Discover Orange Bowl

Wednesday, January 4 at 8:30 PM

Clemson Tigers (9 - 3; 7 - 2 ACC)
vs
West Virginia Mountaineers (8 - 3; 5 - 2 Big East)

GUGS Score: 63.2

Eddie

Clemson Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.789	29	0.526	57	18.5	38	14.3	48	166.8	57

West Virginia Mountaineers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.734	34	0.535	38	19.5	28	14.2	47	166.1	70

If two teams play in a bowl game and nobody watches, do we miss the pick? The humans don't want to watch this game, and the computers can't figure out why. Neither team plays much defense, and the teams are respectable, even if they do play in the two most mocked conferences in college football. Clemon's defense is a little more consistent at 13.0 +/- 2.6 PPH, but West Virginia's is a little better against average competition at 10.3 +/- 8.0 PPH. Offensively, it's more of the same. Clemson isn't quite as explosive as West Virginia's 32.0 +/- 25.1 PPH, but they're more consistent at 22.5 +/- 8.0 PPH. RBA thinks that Clemson can pull off the victory, 31-24, with 56.0% confidence. This means that you should double down on the Mountaineers because RBA never picks Clemson correctly.

Justin

Clemson Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.678	28	0.584	32	22.2	32	16.5	33	171.9	26

West Virginia Mountaineers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.682	26	0.547	54	24.2	22	17.8	47	169.1	40

On paper this looks like it'll be a good game between the ACC champ and the Big East champ. TFG and RBA disagree about the winner, so GUGS sees this as a particularly interesting game. Neither team has a defense that rates in the top quarter of FBS, so we can expect a load of points. By all accounts, the computers predict this will be an interesting game. The problem is that the computers are almost certainly going to be wrong about this game. Given that each computer has picked a different team to win this one, I'm not sure how they can both be wrong, but if there's one way to tempt fate it's by putting a Big East team against an ACC team. The Tigers aren't a particularly great team, but for whatever reason they seemed to have Virginia Tech's number. The Mountaineers have a similar resume with wins over a number of mediocre teams and losses to (2) LSU (understandable), (46) Louisville (hrm), and (79) Syracuse (whoops). This game might not be exciting, but it will be unpredictable and have a lot of points. In the end this will be a toss-up, with TFG picking the Mountaineers out of a hat. West Virginia 35, Clemson 33 (50.6%); 170 plays.

Clemson Tigers Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	68	/ 76	Troy	19	at	34	/ 38	Clemson	43	180	80.6%	/ 80.0%
2011/09/17	14	/ 18	Auburn	24	at	26	/ 29	Clemson	38	181	47.7%	/ 45.7%
2011/09/24	13	/ 12	Florida St.	30	at	28	/ 16	Clemson	35	166	49.2%	/ 28.3%
2011/10/01	23	/ 10	Clemson	23	at	11	/ 19	Virginia Tech	3	162	26.8%	/ 37.6%
2011/10/08	88	/ 91	Boston College	14	at	13	/ 9	Clemson	36	159	92.0%	/ 84.8%
2011/10/15	19	/ 9	Clemson	56	at	55	/ 62	Maryland	45	194	67.3%	/ 77.3%
2011/10/22	40	/ 44	North Carolina	38	at	23	/ 8	Clemson	59	181	73.6%	/ 67.0%
2011/10/29	21	/ 10	Clemson	17	at	41	/ 39	Georgia Tech	31	162	55.1%	/ 62.2%
2011/11/12	72	/ 88	Wake Forest	28	at	24	/ 14	Clemson	31	183	82.1%	/ 83.8%
2011/11/19	27	/ 16	Clemson	13	at	62	/ 65	North Carolina St.	37	173	72.0%	/ 72.6%
2011/11/26	32	/ 32	Clemson	13	at	18	/ 9	South Carolina	34	157	37.7%	/ 29.8%
2011/12/03	9	/ 23	Virginia Tech	10	vs	35	/ 29	Clemson	38	175	27.9%	/ 38.5%
2012/01/04	26	/ 34	West Virginia	--	vs	28	/ 29	Clemson	--	--	49.4%	/ 56.0%

West Virginia Mountaineers Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/04	93	/ 95	Marshall	13	at	19	/ 18	West Virginia	34	127	92.9%	/ 92.3%
2011/09/17	16	/ 16	West Virginia	37	at	46	/ 34	Maryland	31	192	60.4%	/ 35.6%
2011/09/24	5	/ 7	LSU	47	at	21	/ 26	West Virginia	21	188	35.6%	/ 64.7%
2011/10/01	90	/ 89	Bowling Green	10	at	32	/ 27	West Virginia	55	161	87.5%	/ 88.5%
2011/10/08	56	/ 68	Connecticut	16	at	21	/ 23	West Virginia	43	184	80.0%	/ 72.7%
2011/10/21	16	/ 22	West Virginia	23	at	77	/ 79	Syracuse	49	162	79.9%	/ 84.1%
2011/10/29	27	/ 30	West Virginia	41	at	52	/ 52	Rutgers	31	185	55.3%	/ 75.6%
2011/11/05	53	/ 52	Louisville	38	at	28	/ 31	West Virginia	35	165	71.3%	/ 68.7%
2011/11/12	30	/ 33	West Virginia	24	at	34	/ 31	Cincinnati	21	175	49.8%	/ 49.3%
2011/11/25	33	/ 33	Pittsburgh	20	at	28	/ 34	West Virginia	21	175	53.4%	/ 54.2%
2011/12/01	26	/ 34	West Virginia	30	at	50	/ 51	South Florida	27	180	62.2%	/ 55.3%
2012/01/04	26	/ 34	West Virginia	--	vs	28	/ 29	Clemson	--	--	50.6%	/ 44.0%

6. Champs Sports Bowl

Thursday, December 29 at 5:30 PM

Florida State Seminoles (7 - 4; 5 - 3 ACC)
vs
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8 - 4; 1 - 0 Independents)

GUGS Score: 69.4

Justin

Florida State Seminoles
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.807	10	0.553	51	25.0	19	14.1	10	157.8	111

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.766	17	0.620	14	22.3	31	13.9	8	168.6	44

Oddly enough GUGS has more respect for two teams with a combined eight losses than two teams with a combined six losses. The Seminoles have a not-horrible loss to Oklahoma, and three ACC losses by a total of 11 points. Notre Dame hasn't been a horrible team, but seems to have a weakness against Pac-12 teams (hello, USC and Stanford). These teams have nearly identical defenses -- only 0.2 PPH apart -- but differ more significantly on offense; the Seminoles have a 2.7 PPH advantage. Overall the Seminoles have about a field-goal-per-game advantage over Notre Dame, but this one will be close. Don't let the middling records fool you: there are two top-20 teams with excellent defenses and strong offenses. TFG just says that Florida State has a slight edge. Florida St. 31, Notre Dame 29 (56.0%); 163 plays.

Eddie

Florida State Seminoles
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.930	11	0.549	15	19.2	33	9.7	4	165.8	75

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.852	20	0.565	2	18.8	35	11.9	22	165.0	85

Overrated! CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP. Consider this: Notre Dame lost four games this year. They turned the ball over three times inside the South Florida 10 yard line before losing by three. Michigan mounted the comeback of the year to beat Notre Dame, seconds after the Irish "sealed" the game. Down 17-10 at the USC 1, Dayne Crist fumbled, leading to a USC scoop, score, and momentum swing that ultimately doomed the Irish. Hell, if the Irish could stop failing epically in opponents' territory, they very well could have been in a BCS game. (Horseshoes, hand grenades, etc.) Florida State was actually respectable, too, losses to Wake Forest and Virginia notwithstanding, of course. The Seminole offense is slightly above average at 25.4 +/- 12.5 PPH. This is roughly equivalent to the 25.8 +/- 13.0 PPH Irish offense. Defensively, the teams are closely matched, as well. The Seminoles have a slight advantage at 3.8 +/- 11.9 PPH over the Irish at 5.6 +/- 12.6 PPH. The big difference here is team strength, where Florida State boasts a 0.064 advantage. Based on strength and minor advantages on both sides of the ball, RBA picks Florida State, 31-20, with 58.8% confidence.

Florida State Seminoles Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	109	/ 105	LA-Monroe	0	at	17	/ 17	Florida St.	34	147	96.6%	/ 94.2%
2011/09/17	6	/ 5	Oklahoma	23	at	12	/ 12	Florida St.	13	150	48.3%	/ 71.9%
2011/09/24	13	/ 12	Florida St.	30	at	28	/ 16	Clemson	35	166	50.8%	/ 71.7%
2011/10/08	16	/ 14	Florida St.	30	at	82	/ 86	Wake Forest	35	181	81.4%	/ 90.8%
2011/10/15	23	/ 19	Florida St.	41	at	80	/ 70	Duke	16	151	78.2%	/ 87.3%
2011/10/22	50	/ 65	Maryland	16	at	21	/ 17	Florida St.	41	178	79.7%	/ 72.5%
2011/10/29	57	/ 63	North Carolina St.	0	at	16	/ 15	Florida St.	34	156	82.3%	/ 77.0%
2011/11/03	11	/ 10	Florida St.	38	at	84	/ 85	Boston College	7	139	86.0%	/ 88.9%
2011/11/12	25	/ 22	Miami-FL	19	at	10	/ 11	Florida St.	23	152	67.2%	/ 82.1%
2011/11/19	66	/ 67	Virginia	14	at	10	/ 14	Florida St.	13	154	84.3%	/ 87.0%
2011/11/26	11	/ 11	Florida St.	21	at	16	/ 17	Florida	7	152	54.7%	/ 37.0%
2011/12/29	17	/ 20	Notre Dame	--	vs	10	/ 11	Florida St.	--	--	56.0%	/ 58.8%

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	49	/ 41	South Florida	23	at	21	/ 26	Notre Dame	20	182	78.6%	/ 58.6%
2011/09/10	28	/ 30	Notre Dame	31	at	39	/ 45	Michigan	35	151	45.1%	/ 65.3%
2011/09/17	25	/ 45	Michigan St.	13	at	31	/ 27	Notre Dame	31	164	57.3%	/ 53.4%
2011/09/24	24	/ 23	Notre Dame	15	at	30	/ 34	Pittsburgh	12	168	45.4%	/ 44.4%
2011/10/01	19	/ 25	Notre Dame	38	at	82	/ 92	Purdue	10	178	78.9%	/ 82.7%
2011/10/08	50	/ 47	Air Force	33	at	14	/ 16	Notre Dame	59	181	81.8%	/ 57.2%
2011/10/22	30	/ 19	USC	31	at	17	/ 21	Notre Dame	17	156	72.5%	/ 59.0%
2011/10/29	56	/ 66	Navy	14	at	20	/ 21	Notre Dame	56	146	81.3%	/ 74.2%
2011/11/05	14	/ 15	Notre Dame	24	at	77	/ 91	Wake Forest	17	146	82.3%	/ 79.8%
2011/11/12	14	/ 17	Notre Dame	45	vs	71	/ 100	Maryland	21	176	82.3%	/ 85.8%
2011/11/19	84	/ 83	Boston College	14	at	14	/ 15	Notre Dame	16	172	87.2%	/ 87.3%
2011/11/26	15	/ 21	Notre Dame	14	at	7	/ 7	Stanford	28	174	34.2%	/ 26.4%
2011/12/29	17	/ 20	Notre Dame	--	vs	10	/ 11	Florida St.	--	--	44.0%	/ 41.2%

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